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The recent unexpectedly lengthy prorogation of Parliament, carried out with brutal speed and secrecy, should be a salutary reminder to those hoping to prevent a “no deal” Brexit on 31st October of the range of powers the British government possesses to manipulate Parliamentary business. There is every sign that this ruthless and determined government intends to use these powers to the full over the coming months. [...]
When Parliament reconvenes tomorrow, many MPs will be hoping that sufficient anger will have been generated by the decision to prorogue Parliament to enable the House of Commons either to adopt quickly binding legislation designed to prevent the British government from leaving the EU on 31st October with “no deal,” or failing this to hold a Vote of No Confidence in the Johnson administration. [...]
After the dispiriting controversy of mid-August arising from Jeremy Corbyn’s claim that he should head a minority government if a Vote of No Confidence in the Johnson government were passed, MPs seem inclined to attempt initially this week the preemptive legislative route. [...]
Even if Parliament is successful in passing legislation this week that on the face of it seems to prevent a “no deal” Brexit, any such legislation will immediately confront two related problems, the reaction of the government to this legislation and the reaction of the EU. [...]
If MPs fail in their plan to place legal shackles on the government this week, they may well revert in their frustration to holding and perhaps winning a Vote of No Confidence in the Johnson government. While immediately attractive, this would probably create in its train at least one consequence unwanted by many. It seems unlikely that any alternative administration could be formed within the fourteen days succeeding this Vote, particularly if Parliament has been prorogued. This would allow Johnson to remain as Prime Minister, both as the man in possession and the leader of the largest Party in the House of Commons. It would then fall to him to advise the Queen on when the next General Election, as mandated by the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act, would be held. He might well advise a date in early November, just after a “no deal” Brexit but before the worst economic effects of this rash step become apparent. To judge by her willingness to accept prorogation of Parliament on the obviously specious grounds urged by Jacob Rees Mogg last week, the Queen might conclude that she had no alternative but to accept this advice. A Vote of No Confidence in the Johnson government would probably not prove the Royal Road to preventing a “no deal” Brexit. It might even facilitate such an outcome if no alternative administration can be found to prevent it.
In the whirligig of the Brexit tragicomedy, it is entirely possible that Parliament will find itself confronted at the end of the week with a reversion to Jeremy Corbyn’s proposal of three weeks ago for a “caretaker” government with himself at its head. This government would seek to engineer a new General Election, either in mid-October or later in the year, with an extension of the negotiating period being sought from the EU in the latter case. [...]
The passivity of moderate Conservatives has had terrible consequences not merely for their own Party but for the country as a whole, as the internal crisis of the Conservative Party has metastasised into a European, political and constitutional crisis for the British state.
How the perhaps thirty or forty Conservative MPs genuinely shocked by the activities of the Johnson government will act this week will be central to the outcome of the now culminating Brexit crisis. [...]
There is however an alternative course of action open to them, action which the extreme and unprincipled action of the Johnson government has paradoxically made easier for them. The formation of a moderate Conservative faction in the House of Commons would revolutionise the whole British political scene and create options not merely for a caretaker government under Jeremy Corbyn but for a new configuration of British politics. It is precisely this absence of an overdue reconfiguration of British politics which has allowed both main parties to be seized by ideologically driven minorities unrepresentative of the voters to whom these parties traditionally seek to appeal. The humiliating Brexit saga has been the direct result of this dysfunction in the British political system. This week, moderate Conservatives, late in the day but nevertheless, have the opportunity to remedy the errors of omission which they have so culpably committed in recent years. The Johnson government has laid down a contemptuous challenge to them, confident that they will be as fecklessly acquiescent as always.
Full blog post on The Federal Trust