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The IMF, in one of its first reports under its new chief Kristalina Georgieva, today said a no-deal exit is “the key risk in the near term” to the European economy.
It said such an event “could have a sizeable impact” on the economies of both the UK and the EU.
In Britain, it could cause output to be 3.5 per cent lower than it should have been in two years time. The EU would be less badly affected, with output 0.5 per cent below where it should have been.
In its report on Europe, the IMF said Brexit-related uncertainty had already been a factor holding back trade in Europe. It said the US-China trade war the main cause, however.
“Growth in global export volumes has slowed significantly from about 4.5 per cent in 2017 to close to zero in the first half of 2019,” the IMF said.
The report showed that Ireland is the country by far the most exposed to trade with the UK, suggesting it is the country with the most to lose from a no-deal Brexit. Belgium, the Netherlands, and Iceland are the next three most exposed.
The IMF said central banks in Europe should keep interest rates low to try to boost economies, given that inflation looks likely to stay subdued. [...]
Regional Economic Outlook: Europe