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In a Department for International Trade (DIT) document, designed to kick-start post-Brexit trade talks with the White House, the government said the British economy stood to benefit from an “ambitious and comprehensive” trade deal worth a fraction of GDP, equivalent to £3.4bn after 15 years.
Prompting warnings from economists that the benefits would be far outstripped by the losses from crashing out of the EU, the official analysis also showed that a more limited trade deal with the US would deliver benefits to the UK economy worth just 0.07% by the middle of the 2030s, or about £1.4bn.
The government had previously estimated the economy would be as much as 7.6% smaller should Britain leave the EU without a deal, and about 4.9% smaller under Boris Johnson’s preferred Canada-style agreement.
Dr Peter Holmes, an academic at the UK Trade Policy Observatory at Sussex University, said: “The numbers are very small. It just goes to show how tiny the gains are from a free trade agreement with the US compared to losing our present arrangements with the EU.”
Outlining the start of deeper talks with Washington, the UK government insisted it would not water down animal welfare standards or put the NHS up for sale to secure a trade deal with Trump. [...]
The DIT document says the government is aiming to reduce tariffs and other barriers to trade, but without compromising standards. [...]