University of Warwick: Brexit was caused by feelings: older voters not to blame

04 October 2017

Using just-released data, the researchers show that it was people’s feelings about their own finances that led to Brexit, and that Brexit was not forced on the UK by older voters.

Using daily information on 8000 voters surveyed in the run-up to the referendum, the researchers found:

• There was little difference in the voting views of 35 year olds, 55 year olds, and 75 year olds. Only the very young were heavily Remain.
• The Leave vote did not happen because of generalized unhappiness in the country.
• There were no particularly large voting differences between ‘white British’ and other citizens.
• The study found no statistically significant influence from being unemployed, being married, having children, or living in a rural area.

The key predictor of someone’s Brexit vote was their deep-down feelings about their own finances - whether they felt they were managing comfortably, doing OK, just about getting by, or having some - or extreme - difficulty. [...]

Full discussion paper

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