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The pressure group, which is pushing for a second referendum, said that while the analysis did not show that a fresh vote would result in the UK staying in the EU, it did suggest the picture on the doorstep did not reflect numbers changing their mind.
Peter Kellner, a pollster and former president of YouGov, said: “What it does show is that the people that politicians and activists speak to in their local communities could well provide a misleading guide to the public mood. The voice of the private majority is not loud, but it needs to be heard for it is likely to prove decisive.”
A YouGov poll of 3,300 people, commissioned by People’s Vote, found that among the 8% of voters who had had any contact with their MP, six out of every 100 had changed their mind on Brexit. Among those who engaged with some other forum such as a public meeting, radio phone-in or social media, 11 out of 100 were shifting.
In contrast, among the so-called “private majority” – who are believed to include around four out of every five voters – who had not had any of those public-facing interactions, 21 out of every 100 were having second thoughts on their original vote. [...]