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Labour was polling on 25 per cent on Tuesday, exactly the same level as when Mrs May called her snap vote.
Worryingly for Mr Johnson, however, the Conservatives are significantly further behind than at the start of the last campaign. Whereas the Tories were polling 44 per cent on the day the previous election was called, they are currently projected to garner 36 per cent share of the vote.
The political circumstances mirror those of Mrs May who was seeking to win a majority to secure a Brexit deal; Mr Johnson is doing so to achieve the same goal.
Mr Johnson’s push for a vote before Christmas was in part motivated by his party’s healthy lead in polls, which has grown steadily since he became prime minister in July. Last week, one pollster had the Tories as much as 16 points ahead of Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour.
But polling experts have warned that the 2019 election will be even more unpredictable and difficult to anticipate than the last. The British Election Survey noted earlier this month that there was an “unprecedented” level of voter churn between the parties and allegiances were shifting as the electorate orientates down Remain/Leave lines.
John Curtice, the UK’s leading pollster, said that Mr Johnson’s hopes of victory would depend on how well the Brexit party does. The better Nigel Farage’s party polls, the more votes they will take off the Tories and risk letting in Labour.
“This election is not about Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn, it’s about Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage. Labour’s hopes rest heavily on the Brexit party doing well — that’s the paradox of this campaign,” he told the FT.
“Back in 2017, Theresa May expanded her lead by squeezing the Ukip vote. Boris Johnson has managed to do the same for the Brexit party, but the question is whether he can sustain that during the campaign.” [...]
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