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“After five years of weak growth, there are signs of improvement,” OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurría said launching the Outlook during the Organisation’s annual Ministerial Council Meeting and Forum in Paris. “The modest cyclical expansion underway will not, however, be sufficient to sustain strong gains in standards of living across OECD countries. Deeper, sustained and collective commitment to coherent policy packages that support inclusiveness and productivity growth are urgently needed. We need a more inclusive, rules-based globalisation that works for all, centred on people’s well-being” Mr Gurría said.
Stronger business and consumer confidence, rising industrial production and recovering employment and trade flows will all contribute to an improvement in global GDP growth from 3.0% in 2016 to 3.6% in 2018, according to the Outlook.
Among the major advanced economies, the recovery will continue in the United States, which is projected to grow by 2.1% in 2017 and 2.4% in 2018. The euro area will see steady growth at 1.8% in 2017 and 2018. In Japan, growth is projected at 1.4% in 2017 and 1% in 2018. The 35-country OECD area is projected to grow by 2.1% in both 2017 and 2018, according to the Outlook.
In China, growth is expected to slow to 6.6% in 2017 and 6.4% in 2018, while India’s growth rates are expected to strengthen to 7.3% this year and 7.7% in 2018. Growth in Brazil is expected to turn positive for 2017 before reaching 1.6% in 2018.
While the Outlook welcomes the pick-up in the global economy, it points out that the forecasts still leave growth rates below both past norms, as well as the pace needed to escape fully from the low-growth trap. It also draws attention to the fact that while some factors could push global growth higher than projected, there are also significant downside risks.
On the positive side, the Outlook points to the ageing capital stock of firms that may spur stronger-than-expected replacement investment in higher quality capital with more advanced technology. This would improve cyclical conditions and support a revival of investment-intensive global value chains, with knock-on benefits to domestic demand. Higher quality capital would also improve productivity and boost potential output.
Among downside risks, the Outlook points to financial risks and vulnerabilities in advanced and emerging economies, high policy uncertainty in many countries and continued weak wage growth. [...]