SUERF: The encrypted threat: Bitcoin’s social cost and regulatory responses
10 January 2022
While Bitcoin raised the attention for the potential of distributed ledger technology (DLT), it fails to deliver on its promises but comes at high costs. It is unfitted and inefficient as a means of payment but used extensively for illicit activities. It is unsuitable as an investment asset and neither empowers, nor relieves the sovereign individual from the state.
While so
far authorities seemed to have insufficiently addressed the negative
effects of Bitcoin for society, this is eventually changing. Illicit
usage will be further hindered, and compliance costs added to the
Bitcoin ecosystem. Likewise, growing concerns on Bitcoin’s climate
footprint have now led to calls of some authorities to address or even
ban essential elements of Bitcoin’s technology. Nevertheless, Bitcoin
has reached new valuation records in November 2021, maybe also because
of perceived or actual supportive legislative measures facilitating
investment inflows into Bitcoin. As it is difficult to find arguments
supporting the sustainability of Bitcoin, and as the social fall-out of
its collapse would be significant, authorities should (1) strengthen
global implementation of AML/CFT standards and broaden measures to stop
Bitcoin being a vehicle for illicit purposes; (2) avoid measures that
invite additional investment flows into Bitcoin.
1.Introduction
In November 2021, the market
capitalisation of crypto assets exceeded for the first time USD 3
Trillion, of which around USD 1.3 trillion were contributed by Bitcoin
(see Figure 1). This article restates the reasons why the observed
Bitcoin valuation is unlikely to be sustainable. Moreover, it emphasises
that, even if financial stability risks of a Bitcoin collapse might be
contained, the Bitcoin life cycle will likely have implied painful
losses for many retail Bitcoin investors and a significant enrichment
for early investors who liquidate their position in time. Beyond the
negative effects of a perceived unjustified redistribution of wealth,
Bitcoin will have represented a significant negative-sum game as it will
have come with large costs in the form of hardware investments and
energy consumption. The article therefore concludes that public
authorities should not contribute to scale up the eventual damage of
Bitcoin to society. Instead they should, first, treat the Bitcoin
network as rigorously as the conventional financial industry in terms of
prevention of illicit payments, money laundering and terrorist
financing, second, address the negative externalities of Bitcoin’s
energy consumption, and third, deny recognition of Bitcoin as an
investment and not allow it to become incrementally part of the regular
financial system without strictest safeguards. In the rest of this
introduction (section 1), we will briefly recall the origins and the
principles of the functioning of the Bitcoin network. Section 2 turns to
the vulnerability and inefficiency of the Bitcoin technology. Section 3
explains why Bitcoin is not a suitable means of payment, and section 4
why it is neither an investment asset. Based on sections 2-4, section 5
concludes that Bitcoin is unlikely to be sustainable. Section 6 argues
that contrary to one common narrative, Bitcoin does not help the
sovereign individual to regain its liberty, and section 7 recalls the
misuse of Bitcoin for criminal activities. Section 8 explains how all
these issues can be mapped into private and social costs of Bitcoin and
concludes that the net welfare effects of Bitcoin over its life cycle
will have been significantly negative. Section 9 turns to recent
measures by regulators and public authorities, noting that the latter
are becoming tougher on Bitcoin’s use for illicit payments and its other
shortcomings, while some ambiguous regulatory measures facilitate
Bitcoin’s recognition as an investment asset.
Figure 1: Market capitalisation of selected crypto-assets
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