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One of the many things that make German politics interesting is that there is almost always a state election around the corner. Given the country’s federal structure, they are usually of greater importance than similar contests in other EU member states, although the first of this year’s four elections – the SPD’s victory in the state of Saarland – received rather limited coverage due to the state’s small size and population.
The two state elections held last month in Schleswig-Holstein (8 May) and North Rhine-Westphalia (15 May) were of an entirely different calibre, however. Both of these states are major Flächenstaaten that exercise considerable influence over federal politics and may even tip the scales of power in the upper-house Bundesrat.
Schleswig-Holstein is Germany’s northernmost state, culturally influenced by neighbouring Denmark (the Danish-speaking minority even has its own party, which is exempt from the five-percent threshold) and economically reliant on commerce and tourism. A rural and protestant state without notable industrial traditions, it has been contested between the CDU and SPD since the post-war years, carrying a reputation for experimental political constellations. Vice-chancellor Robert Habeck, for instance, served two ministerial terms here in the first ever state-level coalition between the CDU, Greens, and FDP (known as a ‘Jamaica’ coalition).
By contrast, North Rhine-Westphalia, with its old social democratic strongholds in the Ruhr area, traditionally conservative districts in the Northwestern Münsterland, and affluent liberal cities like Düsseldorf and Cologne, is often considered a microcosm of Germany as a whole. Being the most populous state makes it a particularly valuable electoral prize, even more so since a government position in the state can turn even relatively obscure functionaries into serious contenders for higher office. When Armin Laschet threw his hat into the ring to become CDU leader last year, his main advantage was the clout he enjoyed as the state’s minister-president; and when the party moved on after his defeat, he was ultimately replaced by another North Rhine-Westphalian: Hochsauerlandkreis-based Friedrich Merz.
Both states have been governed by CDU-led coalitions since 2017: the Jamaica coalition in Schleswig-Holstein, and a ‘black-yellow’ coalition between the CDU and FDP in North Rhine-Westphalia. This naturally put the SPD in a favourable position ahead of this year’s elections. Only a couple of months ago, the party’s new co-leader, Lars Klingbeil, proclaimed his vision of a social democratic decade; defeating two CDU minister-presidents, he may have thought, would lend credibility to this project while also solidifying Olaf Scholz’s position in Berlin. Indeed, the early-year poll results gave reason for cautious optimism: decent numbers in Schleswig-Holstein and a consistent centre-left lead in North Rhine-Westphalia put even the more pessimistically inclined at relative ease.
Yet, by April, this initial euphoria had cooled down significantly, with new polls showing the CDU again in the ascendancy. Soon after came the shock. First, the SPD’s Thomas Losse-Müller suffered a historic landslide defeat against the CDU’s popular incumbent Daniel Günther in Schleswig-Holstein. Then, a week later, Laschet’s youthful successor Hendrik Wüst repeated Günther’s trick, not winning as overwhelmingly but still comfortably beating his SPD challenger Thomas Kutschaty by a nine-point margin.
Among the other parties, the Greens greatly improved, the FDP lost almost half of its voters, the AfD failed to cross the threshold in Schleswig-Holstein (its first miss in any state election since 2013) and ended just barely above it in North Rhine-Westphalia, and Die Linke continued on its path to irrelevance in western Germany with abysmal results in both contests.
What can we learn from all of this? There are a few considerations that suggest themselves. First, the political centre is again growing in strength. The CDU’s 43.3% in Schleswig-Holstein is something not seen there since 1983 – when Germany still had a three-and-a-half-party system – and its 35.7% in North-Rhine Westphalia also makes for the best state-wide result in almost two decades. Few would have expected such a fast recovery after the disappointing federal election performance last September. On the other hand, the SPD may have suffered two bitter defeats but most of its losses were offset by gains for the Greens (who must be considered an essential part of the centre by now). In sum, around 85% voted for one of the four traditional mainstream parties (CDU, SPD, Greens, FDP) in both states; a difference of almost 10 percentage points compared to the 2021 federal election (76.1%)....
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