Fondation Schuman: The presidential coalition, Ensemble, has failed by a wide margin to win an absolute majority in the National Assembly
22 June 2022
The government fell short of its target by 15 votes...The "strategic vote" did not work, nor did the call for a "republican front" as used previously.
Whilst Emmanuel Macron was re-elected on 24 April in the second round of
the presidential election - a first not involving cohabitation in the
Fifth Republic - the parties supporting him failed to secure an absolute
majority in the National Assembly, the lower house of parliament, on 19
June in the second round of France's legislative elections, despite the
two-round first-past-the-post system, another first of this magnitude
since 1988.
No majority despite majority voting
The coalition of the presidential majority, Ensemble, - which includes
Renaissance (formerly Republic on the Move, LREM), the party of
President Emmanuel Macron, François Bayrou's Democratic Movement
(MoDem), and Horizons, the party of former Prime Minister (2017-2020)
Edouard Philippe, came slightly ahead in the first round on 12 June with
25.75%, but it failed to win an absolute majority (289 seats) in the
second round on 19 June. It garnered 245 seats of the 577 that
constitute the hemicycle of the Palais Bourbon, thus falling short by 44
and winning 38.6% of the vote.
Within Ensemble, the Renaissance party will have 172 seats (-94 seats compared to 2017), the MoDem 43(-14) and Horizons 27.
The New Popular Ecological and Social Union (NUPES), which comprises
Jean-Luc Mélenchon's France Insoumise (LFI); the Socialist Party (PS),
led by Olivier Faure; the Communist Party (PCF), led by Fabien Roussel,
and Europe Ecologie-Les Verts (EE-LV) led by Julien Bayou, won 131 seats
and 31.6% of the vote.
In the NUPES, LFI is due to have 72 seats (+55), the PS 26 (-2), EELV
23, the PC 15 (=). But each of its components will have to form a group,
15 elected members are needed to do so, which means that LFI will not
be the main opposition group.
Indeed, with 89 deputies and 17.3% of the vote, the Rassemblement
National (RN), the right-wing populist party of Marine Le Pen, Emmanuel
Macron's unfortunate rival in the presidential election of 10 and 24
April, is being offered an unhoped-for representation with this voting
method and an increase of 81 seats compared to 2017 (8 elected) which
will permit it to form a group which was not the case in 2017. Unlike
Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who did not stand for re-election, Marine Le Pen,
future President of the RN group of deputies, will not take over the
chair from Jordan Bardella, and will be an opposition figure in the
National Assembly.
The centre-right Republicans (LR) won 61 seats and 7% of the vote. They
lost 31 seats and their status as the first opposition group they held
previously. Above all, LR must look for a new leader, since president
Christian Jacob, who was not standing for re-election, indicated that he
was stepping down at the end of the election, as well as a new
political line. Faced with the rise of extreme radicals in the National
Assembly, Les Républicains will be very much in demand to enable, or
not, the formation of a majority. Will it be a "government pact", as
some of its members are calling for, or a case-by-case decision
depending on the texts, which will be a more uncertain path?
Massive abstention but less than in 2017
Turnout was low: 46.23%. More than half of the French population
(53.77%) chose not to vote. This abstention rate is 1.51 points higher
than that measured in the first round of voting (52.49%). This figure
confirms a trend that has emerged since 2002: namely an increase in
abstention between the two rounds of the legislative elections. However,
it is 3.36 points less than in the second round of the 2017 legislative
elections, which recorded the highest abstention rate since 1958. Five
years ago, 57.36% of voters stayed away from the polls.
Results of the second round of the legislative elections of 19 June 2022 in France
Turnout: 46.23%
© Fondation Robert Schuman
