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Europe is facing a situation that it never thought it would have to face again: there is now a war on its borders, whereas since 1950 the European project has been built on peace ("Never again"), and as a result the return of power struggles which is forcing Europe to adapt its rules so that it can remain relevant in the global competition. In these circumstances, the European elections of spring 2024 (6-9 June) represent a political opportunity to assert and strengthen Europe's place and weight on the international scene. This election will be the starting point for an almost complete renewal of the European institutions with the appointment of the Commission and the designation of a new President of the European Council. Therefore, a crucial political year lies ahead[1].
What does the political landscape in Europe look like one year before this major electoral event?
Recent elections in Europe have confirmed a trend that has been underway for several years: the disaffection with traditional political parties, with a consequent increase in abstention.
Political life no longer attracts either activists or candidates. The numerous private, professional, regulatory, ethical and financial constraints imposed on candidates and elected officials are deterring the most motivated from engaging in politics. Furthermore, and perhaps as a consequence, voters are less and less inclined to go and vote; some because they find the political offer disappointing or because it does not correspond or no longer corresponds to their expectations, others because they would like to see the introduction of certain techniques (electronic or postal voting to avoid having to go to the polls) or certain forms of expression (blank vote).
In general, voters are no longer attached to a party and, because of the disappearance of divisive ideologies, their votes fluctuate according to their mood and circumstances. Thus, it appears that voters can choose a candidate regardless of his or her political label, if one is openly displayed.
Throughout Europe, we are witnessing the gradual decline of the governing parties, which have been in power for several decades, whether they lie to the right or left of the political spectrum.
On the left, this is notably the case of the Socialist Party (PS) in France, which went from winning 250 seats in the 1997 parliamentary elections to 138 in 2002 and only 31 in 2022; the Social Democratic Party (SPD) in Germany, which decreased from a score of 38.52% in the 2002 federal elections to 25.7% in 2021; the Democratic Party (PD) in Italy, which went from 33.2% in the 2008 parliamentary elections to 19.07% in 2022, and PASOK in Greece, whose score fell from 43.79% in 2000 to 11.46% in 2023.
In fact, the left now governs in only five countries (Denmark, Portugal, Spain, Germany, Malta).
On the right, the same situation is true for Les Républicains (LR) in France, which collapsed from holding 309 seats in 2002 (UMP at the time) to only 61 in 2022; for the Christian Democratic Union (CDU/CSU), from 38.51% in 2002 to 18.9% in 2022; for the People's Party (PP) in Spain, from 44.52% in 2000 to 20.31% in 2019; for the Social Democratic Party (PSD) in Portugal, from 40.21% in 2002 to 28.41% in 2022; and above all for Forza Italia in Italy, from 29.48% in 2001 to 8.13% in 2022
The moderate right has, to date, nine heads of government (Cyprus, Romania, Greece, Croatia, Sweden, Ireland, Lithuania, Latvia, Austria). Finland could join them following the general elections on 2 April won by the national coalition party (Kokoomus), bringing the total to 10.
In fact, twelve Member States, almost half, are no longer governed by the left or the right. Four are led by Liberals (Estonia, Belgium, Luxembourg, the Netherlands), three are led by Conservatives (Italy, Poland, Czech Republic), two are independent (France, Slovenia) even though their MEPs sit in the Renew group, and one is in conflict with all the current European parties (Hungary) and its MEPs sit among the non-attached members.
Finally, two countries (Bulgaria, Slovakia) are in the process of appointing a new government....
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