The long-lasting war in Ukraine and the deepening of the conflict between the US and China are the defining moments of our time. A new world order is in the making and, if the EU remains a half-baked construction, it will not play a role in shaping it. The US and China are economic and political areas, the EU is not. A third global actor would make the international system more stable. The EU should strive to give multilateralism a new chance and avoid a pure logic of power in international relations which would make everyone worse off.

The geopolitical stance and role of the EU will crucially depend on reconciling its domestic and internationalagendas. To do so, European leaders must acknowledge that the EU’s current socioeconomic, institutional, and, ultimately, political model is not sustainable in a post-pandemic world characterised by ‘hot’ and ‘cold’ wars.

From a socioeconomic standpoint, the dependence on external demand, the gradual drift away from the technological frontier, the risk of losing the leadership in the fight against climate change, a stagnant demography, and the progressive undermining of social cohesion are calling into question the main tenets of the European economic and social model.

Institutionally, a decision-making process that only produces notable advances during major crises – and is subject to decision-reversal when the pressure abates – is inconsistent with the need to project a coherent stance domestically and globally.

Two persistent conflicts are stretching the political fabric of the EU to the limit: (1) the traditional ‘North-South’ conflict of interest along the solidarity/responsibility dimension; and, compounding this, (2) an ‘East-West’ conflict of values along the integration/national sovereignty dimension. Recent political changes in several member states increase the geographical complexity of these conflicts.

Economic and social weaknesses, institutional inconsistency, and political tensions are bound to increase and lead to paralysis of the EU as it faces the prospect of enlargement to 35+ members.

A new synthesis is needed leading to a new political contract.

A useful starting point is identifying the avenues not to be pursued. The denial of the climate challenge, the short-sightedness of a rear-guard mercantilism, the temptations of technological protectionism and withdrawal from international value chains, the sirens of demographic autarchy, and the outsourcing of defence and security would be tantamount to the demise of the EU and its irrelevance in global governance. These false solutions would not only hinder any positive evolution, but they would also weaken EU’s strengths such as the working of the Single Market and the comparative advantages in terms of environmental standard, welfare state, and regulation...

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