Carnegie's Dempsey: Europe Waits for the New Polish Government

29 November 2023

Poland’s recent vote offers hope amid worrying political trends in Europe. President Duda is doing his country no favors by delaying the appointment of a new government.

Europe needs some good news.

A far-right wing political party led by Geert Wilders won the most seats in the recent Dutch parliamentary election.

 
Judy Dempsey
Dempsey is a nonresident senior fellow at Carnegie Europe and editor in chief of Strategic Europe.

In Hungary, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is threatening to withhold another EU financial package to Ukraine—his latest move in the standoff with Brussels, which is withholding €22 billion ($24 billion) worth of cohesion funds to Budapest over rule-of-law concerns. Orbán is also delaying Sweden’s entry into NATO. His unequivocal support for Russian President Vladimir Putin contrasts sharply with his ambiguous support for Ukraine.

In Finland, which ended its long tradition of neutrality by joining NATO in April 2023, Russia has been sending migrants across the shared border. Jens Stoltenberg, NATO’s secretary general, accused Russia of using “migration as a tool to put pressure on a neighbor and a NATO ally.” Finland has closed several border crossing points.

Sweden’s major cities have been rocked by violence caused by gangs running drug and other criminal activities. This has shaken the country’s liberal immigration policies. Migration is also a headache for Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.

The war in Gaza has highlighted the vulnerability of Europe’s Jewish and Muslim communities. Anti-Semitism and Islamophobia are on the rise in several European countries.

Meanwhile, just to add to Europe’s woes, economies are plagued by inflation that will affect growth and consumer spending, not to mention the costs of implementing the EU’s ambitious green agenda.

But wait a moment.

There could be one snippet of positive news if and when Poland’s president Andrzej Duda swears in a new government led by Donald Tusk, leader of the Civic Coalition.

Duda is stalling. More than that. He has already sworn in the Law and Justice party (PiS) led by Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki. PiS won the most seats in the recent parliamentary election but not enough to form a majority to remain in power. And while Duda has the right to ask the biggest party to try and establish a government, the reality is that PiS will not win the parliamentary majority to do so. Tusk, who has served as Poland’s prime minister and European Council president, is waiting in the wings to take over the mantle of governing this important country.

The EU and NATO are waiting, too. Poland’s size, history, and location in Europe give it a special place in both organizations. Furthermore, Brussels hopes that under a new government, Warsaw might become a counterweight to populist governments elsewhere in the bloc...

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