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This paper examines the prospects for future enlargement of the European Union. The European Commission recently published a comprehensive report and recommendations1, Council in Brussels on 14-15 December 2023.
At present the EU has 27 members, and a further 10 countries are in the process of joining. In order of their application for membership, they are: Turkey2, six countries of the Western Balkans (North Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Kosovo), and three countries of Eastern Europe (Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova). In Annex 1 is a map showing these countries in relation to the EU.
Russmomentum to the enlargement process, bringing to the forefront of European politics the question which countries may join and when, and the consequences of their accession. Debates which accompanied previous enlargements have been re-institutions cope with increased membership? Can the EU afford the cost of taking in countries which are much poorer, and whose economies are dependent on agriculture?
This paper focusses on Ukraine, which poses special problems and has wider geopolitical implications, but it also examines the other countries which are trying to join the EU.
Who will join the EU next?
For reasons of convenience, countries have in the past tended to join in groups; this was the case for the enlargement from 15 to 25. But the official policy is that accession will remain a merit-based process, fully dependent on the objective progress achieved by each country.
On the question who will join next, and when, one can only speculate. As of now, it seems probable that:
• Some of the countries of the Western Balkans (of which four have opened accession negotiations) may join in the next five years, but only if they boost their
economic growth and convergence with the EU, and solve problems of corruption, organised crime, an;
• Membership for Ukraine and its neighbours Georgia and Moldova will take longer. Ukraine faces huge problems of reconstruction because of the war with Russia, while part of Moldova (Transdniestria) has a Russian military presence, and parts of Georgia (South Ossetia and Abkhazia) are occupied by Russia;
• Turkey continues to move further away from the EU and its accession negotiations have been at a standstill since 2018.
For comparison, the latest country to join the EU (Croatia) applied for membership in 2003, opened negotiations in 2005, and joined in 2013....
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