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With the election of Donald Tusk as Prime Minister on 11 December last year, Poland marked the end of the Law and Justice (PiS) party’s eight-year period of populist governance. The newly formed coalition government, led by Tusk’s Civic Platform (PO) and supported by the Third Way and the Left party coalitions, is pioneering in the sense that it will be the first tasked with reversing democratic backsliding in the EU.
The decline of the PiS government in Poland was influenced by multiple factors. A 2020 ruling by the Constitutional Tribunal to tighten abortion laws sparked protests mobilising millions of women and young people. These two demographics played a decisive role in the October 2023 elections. Additionally, conflicts with the European Union over rule of law issues, leading to withheld EU funds since 2022, also became a significant concern for Polish voters. This was acknowledged by PiS politicians, including Marek Suski, who openly admitted that the loss of these funds factored into their electoral defeat.
The new government under Donald Tusk is set to implement significant changes, particularly in Poland’s approach to EU politics. Since Tusk’s initial tenure as Poland’s Prime Minister from 2007 to 2014, the political landscape has evolved considerably.
First, Tusk himself has grown into a seasoned figure in EU politics, gaining extensive experience from his roles as President of the European Council from 2014 to 2019 and as President of the European People’s Party (EPP) from 2019 to 2022. His political maturation and experience have made him a formidable figure in European politics, comparable to Jean-Claude Juncker, who is renowned for his deep commitment to Europe.
Second, Poland has witnessed substantial economic progress, earning it the moniker of the European Union’s “growth champion”. By 2021, Poland’s GDP per capita surpassed that of Portugal and is projected to exceed Spain’s by 2025. Attracted by Poland’s remarkably low unemployment rate – the second lowest in the EU at 2.8% as of October 2023 – young Europeans from countries grappling with high youth unemployment rates, such as Spain (28%) and Italy (24.7%), are increasingly relocating northward.
Given Tusk’s in-depth understanding of EU institutional mechanisms, his influential position within the European People’s Party and the burgeoning economic confidence of Poland, Tusk is well-positioned to emerge as a central figure in EU policymaking.
The new government has inherited numerous challenges from the previous administration, including an ongoing conflict over the rule of law. This contains an open Article 7(1) and two infringement procedures. Furthermore, significant EU funds are currently inaccessible to Poland, notably those from the Resilience and Recovery Facility and the Partnership Agreements/Common Provision Regulation. In 2023, approximately €35 billion in post-pandemic recovery funds were withheld by Brussels due to concerns over the independence of the judiciary.
A key promise of the opposition parties during their electoral campaign was the swift release of withheld EU funds, with Tusk confidently asserting his ability to secure their disbursement. However, the new government’s capacity to reverse the judicial reforms introduced by the previous administration, particularly in the area of the disciplinary regime for judges, remains uncertain.
President Andrzej Duda, who is aligned with the Law and Justice party, retains the power to veto judicial matters until 2025. While Tusk’s personal rapport with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen could be beneficial, it is still unclear whether the Commission will lift financial restrictions amidst these unresolved issues. Poland’s credibility on the EU stage could significantly improve if the new government joins the European Public Prosecutor’s Office (EPPO), which addresses crimes against the EU’s financial interests....
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