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If the polls are accurate, the European Parliament (EP) elections in June will see a surge of support for right-wing populist and far-right parties. The combined strength of the European Conservatives and Reformists Group (ECR) and the Identity and Democracy Group (ID) is predicted to rise from 135 to 163 out of 720 seats.
Such a result would not lead to them dominating the EP or dictating its legislative agenda. The parties within the current ‘grand coalition’ of conservatives, socialists and liberals are likely to lose a substantial number of seats but maintain their overall majority. Furthermore, the parties to the right of the conservative European People’s Party (EPP) are split in two groups. The ECR group is made up of populist nationalist parties such as Poland’s Law and Justice (PIS), Italy’s Brothers of Italy and Sweden’s Sweden Democrats. Many of these parties have led or been part of governments in their member-states. They are very critical of the EU and oppose further integration but have become attuned to working within the Union's rules. They are deeply engaged in the workings of the EP and have successfully shaped legislation, for example on the removal of online terrorist content or hindering the use of cryptocurrencies for illegal purposes. The foreign policies of ECR parties are, broadly speaking, within the mainstream. For example, the two largest parties, PiS and Brothers of Italy are Atlanticist and hawkish on Russia.
The parties within the current ‘grand coalition’ of conservatives, socialists and liberals are likely to lose a substantial number of seats but maintain their overall majority.
The ID group, which includes Germany’s Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), Italy’s Lega, France’s Rassemblement National (RN), the Netherlands’ Party for Freedom (PVV) and Austria’s Freedom Party (FPÖ), has a rather different DNA and is essentially a far-right grouping. The two largest members, the AfD and the RN, have never been in government and are shunned by the mainstream in their respective countries. The attitude of ID group members towards the EU is generally hostile. For example, the AfD still openly talks about leaving the Union, while the RN’s approach to the EU would amount to a soft exit and would gut the Union from within. The ID group often plays the role of disruptor within the EP’s workings, with very little constructive engagement. Moreover, the foreign policy of ID members tends to be much less mainstream, very often with overt pro-Russian sympathies.