CER's Czaky: Will Hungary's presidency rock the EU?

25 June 2024

The Hungarian presidency will have limited impact on EU policies – but the hit to the Union’s reputation could be significant. The Council of the EU’s rotating presidency is often described as ‘responsibility without power’.

Whichever member-state is at the helm drives the EU’s legislative agenda and represents the Council in negotiations with the EU’s other law-making institutions. The presidency lacks hard powers, however, and given the complicated and consensual nature of EU decision-making, its priorities often get watered down or subsumed by crises and unexpected developments.

The incoming Hungarian presidency is worrying. Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s years-long, consistent policy of undermining EU unity on Ukraine and other issues prompted many to question whether Hungary should should take on the role. The Hungarians will hold the presidency immediately after the EU elections and when key positions in the Commission are still being negotiated. This, and the technical nature of the presidency’s responsibilities, including planning and chairing meetings, will limit major policy-level damage. The main risks will be to day-to-day functioning and the EU’s reputation.

An EU beset by wayward leadership could have a harder time navigating challenges, especially in a geopolitically uncertain period. Hungary could undermine unity in the face of foreign policy challenges, such as a potential Trump presidency, Russian advances in Ukraine or further instability in the Middle East. While Hungarian diplomats reassured critics that it will be “a presidency as usual,” the provocative motto of ‘Make Europe Great Again’ complementing its priorities cast doubt on that.

There are ways to limit Hungary’s impact. Other member-states could decide to prevent it from chairing discussions related to the rule of law; they could also boycott important events. But with as many as seven governments containing populist parties sitting in the Council from this autumn, there may be little appetite to do so. In fact, there could be more overlap with Hungary’s positions than previously expected. 

Why does the presidency matter? 

The commotion before its start made it clear that Hungary’s presidency will not be business as usual. Last year, a European Parliament resolution questioned Hungary’s ability of “credibly fulfilling” the role, arguing that a country subject to rule of law sanctions should not represent the EU. Several politicians called for Budapest’s presidency to be postponed altogether, and experts claimed that the move was feasible. In the end, however, the so-called presidential trio, the three countries co-ordinating their priorities, remained intact. The other two members of the trio, Spain and Belgium, argued that postponing Hungary’s presidency would be “counterproductive”.

But why does the presidency matter? In general, two tasks are expected of the country fulfilling this role: to run things smoothly and to build consensus. These tasks mean that the country in charge can influence EU policies and politics.

There are a number of organisational responsibilities that fall on every presidency, from planning and chairing meetings (except for foreign affairs, which is the remit of the High Representative, and the Eurogroup, which includes eurozone countries), to co-ordinating policy work, and representing the Council in negotiations with other institutions. A good presidency should also be an ‘honest broker’ and work to build consensus between member-states ahead of Council meetings. This is a diplomatically challenging part of the job....

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