CER's Scazzieri: Navigating the storm? The EU, the UK and Trump 2.0
11 July 2024
Trump’s policies on NATO, Ukraine and trade will create pressure for the UK and its European partners to work more closely together. Bilateral ties between the UK and individual EU members like Germany are likely to be strengthened.
This policy brief is the second of the CER/KAS project, “Plotting a Course Together: UK-EU Co-operation in Times of Uncertainty”. This paper focuses on the prospect of a second Trump presidency and its impact on relations. The first paper focused on UK-EU co-operation in relation to Ukraine. The third study will focus on Baltic security.
- Donald Trump could be the next US president. A second Trump presidency would lead to extensive transatlantic turbulence. Trump’s view of NATO as a protection racket, his scepticism about support for Ukraine and his trade protectionism are well known. But Trump is likely to be more familiar with the levers of power and to be less restrained in a second term than he was in his first. Meanwhile, Russia’s war on Ukraine means that the stakes for European security are much higher than before.
- Many policy-makers in the EU and the UK think that it will be possible to manage Trump. They hope that his rhetoric on NATO will not be backed up by concrete disruptive action, and that they will be able to placate him through rising defence spending. Similarly, they hope that Trump’s Ukraine policy may not turn out to be a radical departure from Biden’s, and that it may be possible to persuade him to continue supporting Kyiv.
- While hoping for the best, EU and UK policy-makers are also hedging against the worst. Defence spending is rising, and both the EU and the UK have been increasing their support for Ukraine. European policy-makers are discussing how to strengthen NATO’s European pillar, including in terms of nuclear deterrence, and how to give the EU a greater role in buttressing the European defence industry.
- However, Europeans will continue to rely on the US for deterring Russia for a long time. Meanwhile, supporting Ukraine with less US involvement would be very challenging, not least because a reduction in American support would embolden European sceptics of further assistance. Crafting a common economic response to Trump’s policies also won’t be easy – many countries will be wary of picking fights with Washington if they think Trump will no longer defend them.
- Trump’s policies on NATO, Ukraine and trade will create pressure for the UK and its European partners to work more closely together. Bilateral ties between the UK and individual EU members like Germany are likely to be strengthened. A Trump victory is also likely to encourage the UK and the EU to deepen security and defence co-operation.
- A Trump Presidency might also facilitate a broader UK-EU rapprochement, particularly if Britain feels isolated and squeezed by the economic hit from a Trump trade war and the EU’s own response to it. Many in the EU are also likely to think that Britain should be kept as close as possible.
- To navigate a Trump presidency, the UK and its European partners will need to be creative and pragmatic in finding new ways to work together, especially if there are deep divisions in NATO and the EU. Much security co-operation is likely to take place bilaterally, or in small flexible groups of like-minded countries.
full paper
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