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In February 2025, Germany will hold a federal election—and polls indicate that the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Christian Social Union in Bavaria (CSU) allies are likely to triumph.
The change will usher in a generational shift of decision-makers in Berlin, which could see the country turning away from its supranational outlook and instead leading new intergovernmental alliances comprising of north-eastern European state groups, such as Finland, the Netherlands, Poland, and Sweden. It could even stretch to non-European Union states like Norway and the United Kingdom.
But this new approach does not so much stem from 69-year-old likely CDU chancellor Friedrich Merz as from the party’s leading figures. They are, by and large, much younger than Merz and view Germany’s role in Europe in a more self-assured way than previous generations of CDU politicians.
Should Merz triumph, the new German government will have a mandate to pursue a foreign policy based on integration steps concerning defence spending and debt-sponsored innovation policies. Eventually, Germany will be less likely to aim for the broad supranational alliances it previously developed to ensure no state was left behind. Instead, a ‘two-speed Europe’ is likely—although it come at the cost of alienating Germany’s core EU partner, France.
Ever since German chancellor Olaf Scholz was sworn in three years ago, his ‘traffic light coalition’—comprising of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), the Greens, and the Free Democratic Party—lacked a clear leading party and had low public approval. In the absence of coherence, his government seemed less inclined to account for the interests of its European partners in foreign policy decisions.
For example, the coalition approved a serious domestic economic stimulus package to cushion economic losses due to Russia’s attack on Ukraine. However, it did not consult Germany’s main European partners prior to its implementation, despite the package having a substantial effect on their economies.
In contrast, former chancellor Angela Merkel’s ‘grand coalition’— comprising the CDU, the CSU, and the SPD—enjoyed high public approval during her entire tenure. Now election polling shows the CDU and CSU in the lead once again, with between 30% and 32% of the vote. Indeed, as many people support the CDU and CSU as support the parties of the entire former traffic-light coalition, put together. These numbers indicate that the conservatives—with potential chancellor Merz at the helm—will win the election.
Those who support ceding national power to the EU’s institutions might read this as a return to the supranationalism Germany exercised under Merkel. But trying to work out Merz’s whole personality requires slotting many seemingly contradictory aspects together; and this complexity in his character traits reflect in his politics. Some commentators argue that Merz is too pro-American and too spirited; too inclined to aim for one big partner like the United States, instead of forging compromises with many smaller European countries.
During his interviews in the election campaign, he suggests going into debt to finance the German armed forces; but he also remains a fiscal hawk, a proponent of the famous-infamous “black zero”—in other words, Merz is advocating for Germany to not take on any debt. This contradictory stance may herald the revival of a conflict with southern European economies over debt mutualisation....
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