|
|
The Leader of the Conservative Party declared himself relaxed about the possibility that a sizeable number of his backbenchers would express their disagreement with his EU referendum policy. In the event, 114 Tory 'relaxers' effectively voted against the Party Leader – more than half the Parliamentary Party if ministers are excluded. It is now clear that the UK will have to hold a referendum on EU membership. The only questions are: when, and under what circumstances?
Everyone across Europe seems united that the EU needs continuing 'reform'. But most 'mainlanders' seem to define that rather differently from the 114 'islanders' who voted last night for a UK referendum. The 'mainlanders' will be in a continuous process of 'reform' to deepen the single market for decades to come – but that is a definition of 'reform' that means more Europe, not less.
In the shorter term, the eurozone portion of the EU is in the midst of "fundamental change". As that moves to completion, the UK will be progressively marginalised to the point that it may effectively have 'left' the EU anyway. So the next UK Parliament is likely to be the time when Britain really does have to make a decision about being part of that integrated system – or not. That will be a proper moment for a referendum.
More soon for Graham Bishop clients