BBC: Local voting figures shed new light on EU referendum

06 February 2017

The BBC has obtained a more localised breakdown of votes from nearly half of the local authorities which counted EU referendum ballots last June.

This information provides much greater depth and detail in explaining the pattern of how the UK voted. The key findings are:

• The data confirms previous indications that local results were strongly associated with the educational attainment of voters - populations with lower qualifications were significantly more likely to vote Leave. (The data for this analysis comes from one in nine wards)
• The level of education had a higher correlation with the voting pattern than any other major demographic measure from the census
• The age of voters was also important, with older electorates more likely to choose Leave
• Ethnicity was crucial in some places, with ethnic minority areas generally more likely to back Remain. However this varied, and in parts of London some Asian populations were more likely to support Leave
• The combination of education, age and ethnicity accounts for the large majority of the variation in votes between different places
• Across the country and in many council districts we can point out stark contrasts between localities which most favoured Leave or Remain
• There was a broad pattern in several urban areas of deprived, predominantly white, housing estates towards the urban periphery voting Leave, while inner cities with high numbers of ethnic minorities and/or students voted Remain
• Around 270 locations can be identified where the local outcome was in the opposite direction to the broader official counting area, including parts of Scotland which backed Leave and a Cornwall constituency which voted Remain
• Postal voters appear narrowly more likely to have backed Remain than those who voted in a polling station

Full analysis on BBC

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