Financial Times: UK economy set to avert recession despite August stumble

10 October 2019

The British economy is on track to avoid a recession ahead of the latest Brexit deadline, boosted by a return to growth in the services sector.

Despite a contraction in output in August, output grew 0.3 per cent in the three months to August compared with the previous three-month period, according to data from the Office for National Statistics on Thursday.

Economists now expect the economy to have expanded in the third quarter, thereby avoiding a recession — defined as two consecutive quarters of economic contraction. In August the ONS reported that gross domestic product fell 0.2 per cent in the second quarter — the worst performance by the UK economy in almost seven years. 

But the picture looks to have brightened with services output driving overall growth of 0.4 per cent during the three months from June to August.

“Growth increased in the latest three months, despite a weak performance across manufacturing, with TV and film production helping to boost the services sector,” said Rob Kent-Smith, head of GDP at the ONS.

The growth of the services sector, which accounts for about 80 per cent of the economy, slowed to near stagnation in the second quarter, but since then its growth has accelerated. [...]

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