Month in Brussels: Graham Bishop's Personal Overview of June 2012

The June European Council will be seen as a landmark – not because quick fixes were agreed but precisely because it was decided to ask President van Rompuy to produce a report by December for “a specific and time-bound road map for the achievement of a genuine Economic and Monetary Union”. Finally, the Heads of Government have realised that they cannot go on with a series of short-term crisis management measures. Instead, they have to think through what sort of political entity will repay the 10-year government bonds being issued today. IF the answer steadily turns out to be a much sounder and more competitive economic entity than today, then palliatives will help the euro area struggle through the current problems.

Van Rompuy laid down the framework when he introduced it: “The report proposes to move, over the next decade, towards a stronger EMU architecture, based on integrated frameworks for the financial sector, for budgetary matters and for economic policy. All these elements should be buttressed by strengthened democratic legitimacy and accountability.” The van Rompuy report stated that “Several options for partial common debt issuance have been proposed, such as the pooling of some short-term funding instruments on a limited and conditional basis”. 

Graham Bishop, a leading independent analyst of European financial affairs:

• submitted a simple plan to achieve van Rompuy's goal: Set up a temporary euro Treasury Bill Fund with pro rata liability - with the ESM effectively functioning as the first loss-buffer. It would come into operation only after the TSCG and "two pack" are in force, so ensuring the economic governance component of the political union is functioning;
• proposed a plan for a banking union: Create the status of a 'European Bank’ that must – but only - include all banks capable of spreading cross-border contagion within the euro area. The prudential supervision of these banks would be undertaken by the ECB. Correspondingly, the ECB would be able to request the ESM to adopt the power to backstop a dedicated, pre-funded Deposit Guarantee Scheme and Resolution Fund for these `European Banks’ until a sufficient sized fund had been accumulated by them. Such banks would be subject to special regulation limiting `large exposures’ to national public debt, opening the way to holding liquid `European debt’ like the T-Bill Fund; 
• said that "banking union" really could produce “Brexit” (British departure from the EU);
• agreed with ICMA that the term "shadow banking" has become too emotional  - let's call it what it really is: "market finance" instead of bank finance; and
• cited IASB Chairman, Hans Hoogervorst, on public sector accounting standards: “Many executives in the private sector would end up in jail if they reported like Ministers of Finance”.

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Graham would be pleased to write an 'op ed' or an occasional column, or to syndicate his monthly column in IFS School of Finance Financial World magazine.

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Notes for Editors

Graham Bishop is renowned as a one-man think tank, with the vision and courage to propose radical ideas, yet ground them in a mastery of the technical details of the financial system. His influence at the meeting point of politics, economics and finance has built up particularly since the early 1990s, when he pointed out to the Maastricht Treaty negotiators that government debt would have a fundamentally different quality in a common currency. He played a key role in designing the changeover to the euro, both of national currencies and of Europe’s capital markets. His influence continues to this day - as the Rapporteur of ELEC’s insightful plan for a Euro-T-bill Fund, which would have profound political implications for the euro area, and for Britain, if implemented.

Graham now approaches his 80th ’Brussels for Breakfast’ meeting in the City of London - attended by a wide array of senior officials and government affairs specialists from major financial institutions.

Graham is a well-known speaker, he writes books, articles and blogs. He provides consultancy/thought leadership services and education and learning services). His deep knowledge of Europe’s financial system is reflected in research and information services offered by GrahamBishop.com.  

The Press area offers resources and gives full details of his media activities: link