25 April 2017

LSE: Emmanuel Macron may win the presidential election, but turbulent waters lie ahead

Having topped the vote in the first round of the election, Macron will now have to deal with a number of new challenges, including greater scrutiny over his policy proposals, and the task of organising his ‘En Marche!’ movement ahead of legislative elections in June.

whilst fear of the Front National will most probably carry Macron to the Élysée Palace, he still has some significant problems to face. Commentary in the immediate aftermath of the first round vote has highlighted the persistence of a climate of pessimism in France and the sense of a ‘default’ victory for Macron. Pollsters Ipsos Sopra Seria, who conducted the early exit polling data, noted that Macron voters made a ‘resigned’ rather than enthusiastic choice.

The French electorate showed itself to be profoundly divided on Sunday. The old west-east divide remains salient. Whilst Macron represents the half of France which, broadly speaking, feels confident about globalisation, he faces an opponent who claims to speak on behalf of the other France which feels left behind.

Criticisms of policy weakness which have dogged Macron’s campaign will come to the forefront over the next two weeks and he will need to respond convincingly on policy during the major television debate between the two second-round contenders on 3 May. Voters will want to see how he juggles the desire for radical change with a sense of ‘business as usual’ and stability, for example on French leadership within the European Union, and how exactly the promotion of an open, global country will also provide for those currently worried about their own economic prospects.

Finally, Mr Macron faces the unprecedented challenge of going into a presidential election with no established party apparatus behind him to organise the legislative elections which will follow. He has promised to reveal over the next fortnight the list of parliamentary candidates standing under the ‘En Marche!’ banner, and has previously ruled out including in a future government former ministers as well as local electoral deals with candidates of existing parties. With the Socialist Party in meltdown, his movement may be able to capitalise on support among existing centre-left electorates, but the right may be better able to resist the attraction of a Macron-led centrist majority. So far, very few commentators have been rash enough to make predictions about the likely impact of Macronism on electoral dynamics in the ‘third and fourth’ (parliamentary) rounds to come.

Full article on LSE EUROPP blog

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