27 February 2017

Bloomberg: Ex-Premier Major warns May she can't deliver Brexit promises

In a speech in London, his first on Brexit since last year’s referendum on European Union membership, Major accused the victors of treating the losers with “a disregard that amounts to contempt.” And he said some Brexit-supporting lawmakers are “acting against their own principles” by trying to stop Parliament having a “meaningful role” in overseeing negotiations.

But his strongest words were reserved for May and her government, who he said aren’t being honest with the public about what can be delivered from the coming talks on a post-Brexit deal with the EU. In areas from reducing immigration to negotiating free trade to paying into the bloc’s budget, he said, voters faces disappointment.

“The British people have been led to expect a future that seems to be unreal and over-optimistic,” Major said on Monday. “Obstacles are brushed aside as of no consequence, whilst opportunities are inflated beyond any reasonable expectation of delivery.”

Europe Disputes

[...] “Negotiations are all about give and take,” he said. “We know what the Brexiteers wish to take, yet we hear nothing about what our country may have to give in return. If anyone genuinely believes that Europe will concede all we wish for - and exact no price for doing so - then they are extraordinarily naive.”

Major said that May’s plan to secure a Brexit deal within two years is “very, very optimistic.” He said he expects a transitional accord will probably be necessary.

He warned the prime minister against trusting too much in her relationship with Donald Trump, a president he described as “less predictable, less reliable and less attuned to our free-market and socially liberal instincts than any of his predecessors.”

‘Face Down’

And he told May that while she has the backing of the Euro-skeptic wing of her party now, she won’t be able to keep it for ever. “Her policy to maintain a good relationship with Europe is surely right,” he said. “But, at some time, she will have to face down those who favor total disengagement - and who have never accepted our role within Europe.” [...]

[...] Among the areas Major highlighted where he said voters are likely to be disappointed was contributions to the EU budget. He was dismissive of those who have said Britain can simply stop paying - “when you leave any club, you are obliged to settle your debts,” he said - and pointed out that there was no discussion of this even in the government’s recent document setting out its Brexit policy.

‘Very Unpalatable’

“The bill will be substantial: billions, not millions, and very unpalatable,” he said. “It will come as a nasty shock to voters who were not forewarned of this.”

Major warned that mishandling Brexit “will encourage a second referendum on independence” in Scotland, a threat that May would be “reckless” to ignore. And he argued that a return of border controls between Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic would risk damaging the “fragile” peace process there.

Asked if he saw any possibility of a second referendum on Brexit, Major said he thought one is unlikely “at this stage” and that if one ever happened, it would be a long way off. “Let us see how public opinion changes,” he said.

Full article on Bloomberg

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