09 October 2018

UCL European Institute: A Brexit referendum is clearly possible, but contingency planning must start now

A referendum on Brexit is clearly possible, but the details matter. Various processes must be put in place to ensure the referendum is legitimate, according to a new report by the UCL Constitution Unit.

The report titled ‘The Mechanics of a Further Referendum on Brexit’ highlights the constitutional and legal questions that must be considered, including: the timeline, how a referendum could be triggered, the format of the question, and what rules should govern its operation. Key conclusions include:

• A new referendum requires legislation: ensuring proper scrutiny of this, and adequate preparation for the poll would take at least 22 weeks.
• This would demand an extension to the Article 50 period, which should be achievable – but does open up some complications, particularly regarding the European Parliament elections due in May 2019.
• There are various trigger points for a referendum. Parliament could demand a referendum in return for approving the government’s deal with the EU, or impose it in the event of ‘no deal’ to avoid the UK crashing out without a deal.
• Some politicians have advocated a ‘yes/no’ referendum on the deal, but this would be unwise. The report also dismisses a two-stage poll, as some others have proposed, and concludes that a ‘deal’ vs. ‘no deal’ poll is unlikely.
• Three question formats are more viable: ‘deal’ vs. ‘remain’, ‘no deal’ vs. ‘remain’ (if no deal is reached) or a three-option poll on ‘deal’ vs. ‘no deal’ vs. ‘remain’.
• The franchise for a referendum should be the same as in June 2016, to avoid the risk that a changed franchise alters the result.
• Referendum regulation should be updated to account for online campaigning.
• Five scenarios for a referendum are set out, with a first possible polling day in May 2019.

Proponents of a second referendum argue that, with parliament so divided on the UK’s future, the public should be given the opportunity to decide whether or not to accept the deal the government has negotiated once the details are known. The Constitution Unit has no position on Brexit or on whether a further referendum should be held, but seeks to inform debate about the practicalities.

Full report

© UCL European Institute