French referendum update: chances for a 'no' increase to 70%.
Recent new polling gives the “no” a large and unprecedented lead – 55% to 45%, Chirac does not seem to have gained much traction from his “successful” European council, where the Bolkestein directive was essentially buried in its current form, Only one strong “yes” voice over the last days: PM Jean-Pierre Raffarin presented himself Thursday night on the largest news show as the “chief of the explanation campaign”. However, given Mr Raffarin’s huge unpopularity, this is very unlikely to help, and could even prove counterproductive, Leading “yes” supporters – Sarkozy and Bayrou on the right, Strauss-Kahn and Hollande on the left – remain strangely low profile. Could it be that they consider the referendum lost and want to avoid the front line in order to preserve their chances for the 2007 presidential election?
SummarySo far, Government not tempted to give too much away to buy a “yes” vote:
pay increase for civil servants due to be announced on 29 March (we expect 1%), supposed to be compensated by some sort of State reform;
very small budget-neutral gesture for the private sector in the form of an option offered to employees to unlock their “épargne salariale” (money saved by companies within dedicated schemes) before the current 5 years;
education reform passed at the Parliament Thursday in spite of continuing (but receeding) “students” strike.
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© Graham Bishop
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