11 July 2005

EZA 691: ECB Council Post-Meeting Assessment, July 2005

ECB Post Meeting Assessment
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SummaryEZA Conclusion: Further reinforcement of EZA's long-held contention that rates likely to remain on hold through to late H2 2006, when 1 or 2 successive rate hikes likely if GDP growth is returning to trend. Rate cut not on the cards now but low-probability political event risks or second-round inflation effects could induce earlier rate rise, ie slight bias on the upside beyond the short term.

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© Graham Bishop