Centre-right coalition in sight – liberal PO falls behind conservative PiS
The 25 Sep general elections in Poland brought the expected landslide victory for the centre-right PO-PiS over the incumbent Socialist SDL government. The conservative PiS’s inching ahead of the market oriented PO comes as something of (negative) surprise to the markets, given its socially oriented platform. As well as the prime minister’s position the PiS will claim the finance ministry, while leaving the economics ministry to the PO. The relative powers of PO and PiS in shaping economic policy will depend on the presidential elections 09 Oct/23 Oct, with PO Donald Tusk the frontrunner.
SummaryAsset conclusions: centre-right overall reform-positive, but liberal PO’s falling behind implies disappointment for fiscal tightening and structural reforms. Expect a pullback for bonds and the zloty on uncertainty on monetary policy.
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© Graham Bishop
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