30 June 2003

EZA 544 - Euro-Politics

EU Summit sets 'final' Europe size at 34 nations
Given the increasing antagonism of the Italian government toward Europe, European Union partners are unlikely to rely on Rome to progress the strategic elements of widening and deepening agreed at the European Council (Summit) in Porto Carras, Greece. Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi’s wish to conclude adjustments to the European Convention draft treaty by Dec03 to sign a new Treaty of Rome looks unrealistic. But Porto Carras moved the EU in strategic decisions significant for clients to understand: (i) it defined the ‘final’ size of Europe, and therefore the potential euro area, is 34 countries including Turkey; (ii) this size is unlikely to be achieved before 2017; (iii) it opened a path to setting a timetable for EU enlargement to the Balkans; (iv) it accelerated a move toward a European global agenda independent from the US; (v) it tacitly agreed to fundamentally review the Maastricht Treaty’s Stability and Growth Pact in 2H03; (vi) it showed some openness to Rome’s proposal to use the European Investment Bank to finance a multi-billion-euro public sector infrastructure investment program. This report draws on the analysis of our friends at the European Policy Centre in Brussels.

SummaryAsset Conclusions: Asset conclusions: Setting of final size Europe in Porto Carras Summit puts limit on euro nations at 34; Iraq disarray boosts EU integration push

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© Graham Bishop