15 February 2016

ComRes/ITV News: Big rise in those who want Britain to leave EU

The lead for “Remain” has narrowed to eight points in a new ComRes poll for ITV News. 49% of Britons now say they would vote to remain in the EU if a referendum was held tomorrow, compared to 41% who say they will vote for leave.

 This eight point lead for “Remain” is down from 19 points in ComRes’s January poll for the Daily Mail.

The poll comes at the start of a crucial week for the Prime Minister, culminating in an EU summit in Brussels where leaders will try to agree a deal over Britain’s renegotiated membership of the EU. ComRes’s last poll on the referendum was done before David Cameron’s renegotiation deal with Donald Tusk was announced. At the time, 54% backed remaining in the EU and 36% supported leaving.

This new poll for ITV News suggests 42% of those stating an opinion may still change their mind before the referendum. Both camps have similar proportions of undecided voters, with 42% of those saying they will vote “Remain” and 41% “Leave” saying they may still change their mind.

The poll also suggests that the most important issue voters say will determine how they vote is control over the number of EU migrants entering Britain, which 53% say will be one of their three most important considerations. This is followed by control over Britain’s laws (43%) and the economy (38%) and national security (38%). Among those who currently say they would vote to remain in the EU, 47% said the economy was the most important issue, while 76% of those who back leaving said controlling migrant numbers was.

Findings in detail