30 April 2014

Coalition-building in the European Parliament will become more difficult

Even without knowing the exact results of the European elections of May 22-25 there is much to suggest that obtaining a majority in the European Parliament will be more difficult in the future, as the expected gains for populist parties will be at the expense of the pro-European political groups.

The European People's Party (EPP) should be hardest hit: with 36 per cent of the seats in the legislative term 2009-2014, it was the strongest parliamentary group by far, but according to the latest polls it accounts for less than 30 per cent. In countries with strong right-wing populists (e.g. France, the Netherlands, Austria and the UK) these parties are mainly attracting votes from the traditional milieu of the EPP.

Compared with 2009, the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE) and the European Greens are also likely to suffer losses. Out of the larger parliamentary groups in the EP only the Party of European Socialists (PES) should achieve a slightly better result than in 2009 when it hit a historical low of 25 per cent.

Unlike in national parliaments, the formation of a majority in the EP often comes about by changing majorities instead of fixed coalitions. Nevertheless, the expected election results have interesting implications for the future coalition options. A centre-right majority consisting of EPP, ALDE und ECR (European Conservatives and Reformists, whose numerically strongest grouping is the British Conservatives) should no more be possible in the next EP. To achieve a majority, these parliamentary groups will therefore either depend on votes from right-wing populists or from parties to the left of the political centre.

The question as to whether a centre-left majority (PES, ALDE, Greens and Green Left) could be possible will not be decided until election day. However, such a parliamentary majority would require a common position of pro-European liberal and social democratic parties and eurosceptic groups to the left of the political spectrum, which is unlikely to be a realistic option on many substantive issues. What will remain unchanged is that a grand coalition of EPP and PES will have a majority in the EP. Thus, the influence of the Social Democrats in the European Parliament is likely to increase as it will become very difficult to form a majority without the PES in the future.

Deutsche Bank research brief

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