[...] One thing that is now clear, because Leave campaigners freely admit it, is that they want Britain to exit not just Europe but the single market.

That would mean turning our backs on the largest marketplace in the world – something Margaret Thatcher helped to create and Britain has championed ever since.

The evidence is unequivocal: that would put our economy in serious danger and make the country permanently poorer.

When this is being backed up by the International Monetary Fund, the OECD, the London School of Economics, eight former US Treasury secretaries, the President of the United States of America, businesses big and small, every one of our allies and trading partners and the Governor of the Bank of England, it isn’t a conspiracy but a consensus.

A few weeks ago, the Treasury published analysis which shows Britain would be worse off to the tune of £4,300 for every household every year by 2030.

Today, we are setting out our assessment of what would happen in the weeks and months after a vote to Leave on June 23.

It is clear that there would be an immediate and profound shock to our economy.

The analysis produced by the Treasury today shows that a vote to leave will push our economy into a recession that would knock 3.6 per cent off GDP and, over two years, put hundreds of thousands of people out of work right across the country, compared to the forecast for continued growth if we vote to remain in the EU.

In a more severe shock scenario, Treasury economists estimate that our economy could be hit by 6 per cent, there would be a deeper recession and unemployment would rise by even more.

As the Bank of England has said, as the IMF has underlined, and now as the Treasury has confirmed: the shock of walking out of Europe would tip the ‎economy into reverse.

This would be, for the first time in our history, a recession brought on ourselves: a DIY recession.

Under all scenarios the economy shrinks, the value of the pound falls, inflation rises, unemployment rises, wages are hit, and as a result - government borrowing goes up.

Sterling is projected to fall by 12 per cent, consistent with a range of studies, and could fall by 15 per cent in the event of a more severe shock.

Not only will holidays abroad be more expensive, but because the pound would be worth less everything we import would become more expensive, increasing inflation and hurting family budgets.

House price growth would be hit by at least ten per cent and as much as 18 per cent, making homeowners poorer. There wouldn’t be good news for young people trying to get on the housing ladder, though, because mortgages would be harder to get and more expensive.

The shock would persist because the UK would become less open and less productive – cutting itself off from that free trade single market.

We can see that even the possibility of a Leave vote has already caused uncertainty in the economy.

If we do vote to ‎leave, that uncertainty will redouble. It won't be easy to negotiate a new relationship with the EU, since that will require the approval of all other 27 member states. France and Germany have already been clear that the UK could not expect a deal better than they themselves have inside the EU and, like Norway and Switzerland, would have to accept free movement of people and pay in to the EU budget in order to access the free trade we need. We will also have to try to reach new agreements with over 50 other countries we currently enjoy trade deals with through the EU. It will take years - meaning years of uncertainty for our economy.

Economic uncertainty means businesses would reduce investment and cut jobs in the short term, which would mean households spending less too.