02 December 2013

Opinium: In or Out? Britain's future in Europe

Evidence from Opinium's latest poll suggests that the British public would ultimately vote to leave the EU in a referendum, although this is by no means as certain as it is often portrayed.

Research carried out by Opinium Research for Lansons Public Affairs and Cambre Associates in association with City of London Corporation

Reasons for supporting or opposing a “Brexit”

The most popular category of open text responses, when asked why the UK leaving would be good or bad for their country, was that the UK would no longer be able to act as a spoiler, preventing the EU from moving ahead (41% of those in Germany saying it would have a positive impact). There were also concerns that a British exit would result in Germany having to shoulder more of the financial burden (30% of those saying it would have a negative impact).

Results were similar in France with 37% of those saying a British exit would have a positive impact citing the removal of the UK as a disruptive influence that would allow the EU to work better. Again, the most commonly cited drawbacks were economic with 27% of those saying it would have a negative impact citing the economic effects of a country leaving.

In Poland, understandably, there were concerns about the effect on Poles in the UK and immigration (55% of those saying it would have a negative impact) while just 13% of those saying it would have a positive impact cited emigration being cut.

Among the other reasons for wanting the UK to leave the EU were variations of the idea that the UK has never been “part of Europe” or has always been in some way separate. We have seen in the culture and attitudes section that the UK is more likely to identify with other English speaking countries than the rest of Europe and respondents in these countries largely believe that the UK is closer to the United States than the rest of the EU.

Conclusions

That Britain is hardly a cheerleader for the European Union is unsurprising and this research points to three possible sources of such feelings.

The first is that while British respondents see some benefits, citing particularly the effects of the Single Market, the way the EU affects immigration is viewed mostly negatively and this overwhelms the mildly positive effects the EU is seen to have elsewhere.

The second it that while immigration has without doubt fuelled the rise in anti-EU sentiment over the last few years, a more structural source of euroscepticism is the fact that people feel less affinity with Europe than those in other, more convincingly “European” countries. Europe is seen decidedly as “the other” and the EU has the feeling of being a foreign project rather than serving all members of a group that Britain feels a part of.

This colours perceptions of everything the EU does. Laws and rules which the British government and British MEPs may agree to become foreign diktats while contributions to the overall pot from which all members draw become mandatory foreign aid and “waste”.

Europe is no doubt an emotive issue for a substantial segment of the population and the most popular option in our referendum polls is inevitably “would definitely vote to leave the EU” rather than “would probably vote to leave the EU” or either of the options to remain. Yet the other side of this issue, and the third source of eurosceptic feelings, is apathy.

When the question is put in front of them, more think leaving the EU would be positive than negative but the most popular options, particularly on how the EU would affect them individually, tend to be “neutral impact” or “no impact”. While most questions in this survey were “closed” (i.e. respondents were presented with answer), for those that required a typed in answer, around a third of respondents ticked the “don’t know” opt-out option, indicating that their engagement with the issue is relatively superficial.

The combined effect is that people in the UK are, on balance, in favour of leaving the EU because they don’t think the effect will be particularly damaging and therefore the perceived costs of membership outweigh the perceived lack of cost in leaving. However, the fact that so many are disengaged from the issue means that while Europe is a highly charged issue for some, there is such a gap of information and feeling generally that the effects of a referendum campaign could be substantial.

This research also offers some takeaways for each side in a potential referendum campaign.

For those advocating withdrawal, the issue of immigration is clearly an emotive one and clearly linked to EU membership given the foundational principle of freedom of movement. The areas of disillusionment with the EU (immigration, cost and imposition of “foreign” rules) are familiar to anyone who follows the news but this research shows how dominant they are in the public’s view of the European Union and how much public support depends on tangible, transactional benefits.

For those who wish to keep Britain in the EU, the fact is that a large section of support for withdrawal rests on the idea that leaving the EU would be relatively painless and that if the dangers and drawbacks of leaving were to be made clear then these may be votes that can be turned. As we have seen in the Scottish independence referendum, the points that cut through the most have been those highlighting how Scotland could lose out if it became independent. If the British public believe that leaving the EU is a relatively cost-free option then putting these costs front and centre may be the most direct and effective way of convincing them to stay.

Would the British public ultimately vote to leave the EU in a referendum? The evidence here suggests that they would but it is by no means as certain as it is often portrayed.

Full poll

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