03 December 2019

The Independent: Boris Johnson's Brexit plans will cost UK economy up to £20bn a year, report warns

“Getting Brexit done” on the terms of Boris Johnson’s general election manifesto will inflict a hit of up to £20 billion a year on government finances, rising as high as £28 billion if the UK crashes out of the EU without a trade deal agreement at the end of 2020, a new report has warned.

Far from bringing the Brexit process to a conclusion, the prime minister’s plan to leave the legal structures of the EU on 31 January will ensure that “Brexit uncertainty will continue”, with no-deal the default scenario unless Mr Johnson can meet his own “hugely demanding” timetable to conclude a future relationship agreement within 11 months, the report found.

By contrast, analysis by the UK in a Changing Europe (UKCE) thinktank estimated that Labour’s softer proposed withdrawal deal would deliver a positive fiscal impact of £2-£12 billion, while the Liberal Democrat plan to halt Brexit altogether would provide a “Remain bonus” worth £12 billion a year to government coffers.

Despite Mr Johnson’s often-repeated assurances that “getting Brexit done” will bring an end to the three-year period of business uncertainty following the 2016 referendum, the think tank found that it was “easy to imagine” outcomes that will “lead to an increase not a reduction in economic uncertainty”.

In its analysis of the main parties’ manifestos for the 12 December election, UKCE found Brexit policies to be “vague and potentially unrealistic”, with a “glaring” failure by both Tories and Labour to set out how they intend to deal with the “significant” impact which EU withdrawal will have on the UK economy over the years to come. [...]

Full article on The Independent

The UK in a Changing Europe analysis: Manifestos reveal unclear and unrealistic Brexit goals

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