The first of three negotiating rounds on final trade arrangements concluded last week with predictably little progress being made. The big deadline is the end of June.
By that point the UK either asks to extend the transition period during which it remains under the EU’s trade regime or commits to leaving at the end of the year.
It’s hard to find a single trade type (without a direct career interest) who thinks failing to extend is anything but a potential disaster. It’s highly unlikely the UK and the EU will have anything but a minimal preferential trade agreement (PTA) in place by end-year. Result: big border frictions, possibly tariffs, certainly rules of origin problems, derecognition of professional qualifications, Uncle Tom Cobley and all.
But Boris Johnson’s government has not only repeatedly said it won’t ask for an extension, it’s actually deliberately blocked the bolt-hole from that position. Initially it seemed as if it might be executing one of its traditional blame-shifting exercises, trying to force the EU to be the one to ask. But it then made a pre-commitment gambit, an unequivocal statement that it would not agree to an extension even if the EU asked, raising the cost to itself of a retreat....
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