The latest poll by Redfield & Wilton for UK in a Changing Europe
suggests that, among those expressing a preference, 54% would now vote
to join the EU while only 46% would back staying out. That is quite a
turnaround from the position just six months ago. Then, 55% were saying
they would vote to stay out and only 45% to rejoin. Of course, some of
the movement may simply reflect random variation, something to which all
polls are subject. But the latest figures are consistent with those of other polls during the summer, the last half dozen of which have on average also put rejoining on 54% and staying out on 46%.
What might account for the movement that
has taken place in the last half year? Since last February the UK in a
Changing Europe poll has been tracking what people think have been the
consequences of Brexit. In the case of the economy, for example,
respondents have been asked:
In your opinion, with the United
Kingdom outside of the European Union is the UK’s economy now in a
stronger, weaker, or similar position to it would be in otherwise?
Other topics are asked about in a similar way.
In the first two columns of the table
below we show for each possible consequence the proportion who in
February thought that things were, as a result of Brexit, more/better
than they otherwise would have been, and the proportion who thought they
were less/worse. In the last two columns, we then show the same
information for the most recent poll.
In some instances, the balance of opinion has barely changed. In the case of whether companies are now selling more or fewer goods abroad,
for example, in February 11% thought they were selling more 46% fewer,
producing a ‘net score’ of -35. Now in the latest poll, the net score
is, at -36, almost exactly the same. This picture is also replicated for
perceptions of the handling of the pandemic and on whether Britain has
more or less influence in the world.
But there are other entries in the table
where perceptions of the consequences have changed noticeably. Back in
February, 28% thought that immigration from outside the EU was higher as a result of Brexit,
while 19% reckoned it was lower, creating (on the assumption that most
voters favour lower immigration) a net score of -9. Now the net score is
-19. There are also similar sized falls in the case of wages and the NHS.
However, the one subject area where the balance of opinion has moved most markedly in a negative direction is the economy.
Even in February, the net score was already as low as -29. Now, in
contrast, it stands at -44. Much of this drop has occurred in the last
two months – back in June the net score had only edged up to -35. It may be that the increasingly pessimistic news
about inflation, living standards and the risk of recession in recent
weeks have led some voters to question how successful Brexit is proving
to be in delivering economic benefit. In any event, as a result of the
more negative outlook, the balance of opinion on the economic
consequences of Brexit is now more negative than it is for any of the
other areas covered by the poll apart from the cost of living crisis.
As Table 2 shows, this shift has occurred
among both Remain voters and Leave supporters. However, it has been
especially sharp among those who voted Leave in 2016. In February, the
balance of opinion among this group was tilted somewhat in a positive
direction (albeit many said that the economy was in a similar position
to what it would have been without Brexit). Now it has swung in the
opposite direction.
This change of perception matters. As we demonstrated
when we first analysed the February poll, the perception most strongly
related to whether or not people have changed their minds about whether
the UK should be inside or outside the EU is their view of the economic
consequences of being outside. Remain voters who think that the economy
is better as a result of Brexit are especially likely to say now that
the UK should stay out of the EU, while Leave supporters who believe
that the economy is now worse in the wake of Brexit are particularly
likely to say they would now vote to join. So, the more negative outlook
that voters have now about the economic consequences is a key
explanation for the decline in support for staying out of the EU. more at UKand EU
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