Stephen Hunsaker analyses the latest data from the Office for National Statistics’ September UK trade report, highlighting the key import and export trends. This forms the second in a series of UK in a Changing Europe trade trackers.
The Office of National Statistics (ONS) released its monthly trade report
for the UK for September 2022 and Q3. Imports and exports of goods and
services fell slightly from last month, but overall remained relatively
flat. Additional comparisons were added this month to include price
versus volume measures to account for dramatically changing prices.
Total imports and exports trends
The fall in non-EU imports was due to falling gas prices and not a
drop in the volume imported. Looking at Q3 (July-September), while
import price measures rose by 1%, the import volume measures fell by 1%
of GDP. Total import levels seem to be climbing at a staggering pace
this year; however, this is primarily due to inflation and price
increases (see figure 1).
Total volume measures for imports show a different story, with
imports rising at the end of 2021 before becoming stagnant for most of
2022. Import and export volume measures have still not reached
pre-pandemic levels. Total export volumes dipped after the end of the
transition period but have crept up, with this quarter only 1% of GDP
higher than at the end of the transition period. This is in line with
the latest GDP data that shows the UK economy shrinking in the third
quarter of 2022 and lagging behind all other G7 countries.
EU v non-EU trade trends
Non-EU price imports continued to rise this quarter, mainly in
August. However, as previously mentioned, this can be explained by
increasing gas prices. Compared to price measures, volume measured for
non-EU imports slightly increased during the pandemic and has only
fractionally decreased this year.
While EU price imports fell sharply before the end of the transition
period, they have grown since that time, matching previous levels (see
figure 2). The story remains the same when looking at volume measures
instead of price. EU imports have remained relatively stagnant, only
slightly below pre-pandemic and end of the transition period levels (see
figure 3). Export price and volume levels for EU and non-EU continue to
be in parallel with one another. No fundamental shift has occurred due
to the end of the transition period or the pandemic...
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