28 April 2023

UKandEU's Surridge: Will Brexit matter at the next election?

Paula Surridge analyses UK in a Changing Europe’s latest Redfield and Wilton Strategies Brexit tracker poll. She looks at the influence of a party’s Brexit stance on the voting behaviour of different groups to examine how much Brexit is likely to matter at the next election.

With Brexit seemingly of less concern to British voters and a general election on the horizon, a key question is the extent to which the Brexit positions of the parties will matter to the electorate when they next vote. It is a complex question, as voters are not always good at telling us directly the reasons for their vote. But it is critical for political parties thinking about how to engage with the issue in the coming months. Recent research has urged the Labour party to adopt a pro rejoin position, claiming it is a vote winner but has also found that the key ‘swing’ groups were Leave leaning.

When asked what the most important issue facing the country currently is, fewer than one in five voters choose Brexit. Yet it clearly continues to play a key role in our national political conversation and to divide MPs both across and within political parties. For party strategists, though, a key issue beyond the detail of policy is how party positions on the EU affect the behaviour of voters.

Our Brexit public opinion tracker has asked a wide range of questions about people’s attitudes to Brexit, their Brexit identities and the extent to which various aspects of life in the UK have been improved or worsened as a result of leaving the EU. We have also asked voters about the influence of a party’s Brexit stance on their voting behaviour, specifically: ‘Which of the following parties would you be most likely to support and vote for?’. Respondents can choose from ‘A party that advocates FOR joining the EU’, ‘A party that advocates AGAINST joining the EU’ or ‘A party that prioritises other issues first’.

Overall, the electorate are split relatively evenly across these categories, with 37% saying they would be most likely to support a party in favour or joining the EU, 28% a party that is against joining and 36% saying they would be most likely to vote for a party that prioritises other issues.

There is, as we would expect, a strong pattern of 2016 Remain voters preferring to vote for parties in favour of joining, and Leavers preferring parties which are against joining. However, there is also evidence of large groups of voters on both sides preferring parties that are prioritising other issues.

 

When it comes to winning general elections, crafting a coalition of voters is key. For Labour and the Conservatives, groups of voters which switch between parties at elections are of particular importance when it comes to winning key seats....

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