The UK is heading into the most unpredictable and volatile general election campaign in decades, according to a major academic study of the electorate over the past 10 years.
The British Election Study, which has assessed UK elections since 1964, has analysed the outcomes of the 2010, 2015 and 2017 polls and concluded there was “an unprecedented trend of voting volatility”, with almost half of voters changing allegiance.
With another election widely expected before the end of the year, after another delay to the UK’s departure from the EU, the BES warned that the country’s electoral map was undergoing significant changes and predicting the outcome of a 2019 poll would be especially difficult.
Between the 2015 and 2017 elections, a third of voters switched parties while 43 per cent changed in 2015 compared with 2010. By contrast, between 1964 and 1966, when the survey began, just 13 per cent of voters changed their mind.
“Given the UK’s recent history of vote switching and the unpredictability of the current climate, it would be unwise for any political party or commentator to presume how voters will behave in a general election,” said Edward Fieldhouse, professor of social and political science at Manchester university, who was involved in the study.
David Butler, the veteran psephologist who has studied British elections for 70 years, said at the launch of the report: “I have never felt more confused and uncertain” about the potential outcome of an election.
The BES predicted that in the upcoming election, even greater volatility would occur than in the last three polls as “voters become less loyal” — citing, for example, the uncertainty around the Brexit party and how its participation would probably split the Conservative vote. [...]
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