08 December 2016

Financial Times: Parliament endorses Brexit: what does the vote mean?

Britain’s parliament voted overwhelmingly in favour of Brexit and endorsed a March 2017 timetable for beginning talks. Iain Duncan Smith, the former Conservative cabinet minister, said the vote gives Theresa May a “blank cheque”. But how significant was the vote and is the path to Brexit now clear?

What happened in the vote?

A total of 461 MPs voted to endorse the Brexit vote in June’s referendum and to back Mrs May’s timetable for exit; some 89 MPs voted against, including the Scottish National party, five Liberal Democrats, veteran Tory Europhile Ken Clarke and 23 Labour MPs who defied the party whip.

The vote was triggered by a Labour motion demanding that Mrs May publishes a “plan” setting out her negotiating objectives before she triggers Article 50. Mrs May reluctantly agreed, but her aides have already made it clear that MPs should not expect to see a detailed negotiating blueprint. [...]

Now that the Commons has voted for Brexit, does Mrs May have ‘a blank cheque’?

Reading some of the Eurosceptic press on Thursday, that would certainly be the impression. Indeed, there is something remarkable about a largely pro-EU House of Commons voting for Britain to leave the EU.

But according to Dominic Grieve, the former Tory attorney-general, the idea of parliament voting against Brexit after a clear result in the referendum was always a “fantasy castle”.

But the vote will not be the end of the story. Labour’s Brexit spokesman Sir Keir Starmer has tied his party’s continued support for Mrs May to her meeting “five tests” of openness about her negotiating strategy: tests she is very unlikely to meet.

If the Commons has already backed the triggering of Article 50, what is the point of this week’s Supreme Court case?

The vote on Wednesday was on a non-binding Labour motion. The Supreme Court is ruling on whether the government needs formal parliamentary approval to start Brexit — that means bringing forward primary legislation.

The Supreme Court ruling is expected in January. If the government loses, Mrs May will bring forward a short bill to approve Article 50 which will have to pass through the Commons and Lords, with the prospect of delays and amendments.

Why is Theresa May so confident that she will be able to start Brexit in March 2017 whatever happens in the Supreme Court?

The Commons vote on Wednesday showed that most MPs, including a majority on the Labour benches, are scared to be seen to be “standing in the way of the people” by opposing Brexit.

Labour, SNP, Liberal Democrats and some pro-European Tories will harry and possibly defeat Mrs May during the passage of an Article 50 bill, insisting on an amendment requiring her to publish her negotiating strategy.

But Mrs May will argue that key details need to be kept secret ahead of Brussels talks — a point conceded in Wednesday’s vote — so any plan is likely to remain broad brush in nature.

In the end, Mrs May will present MPs with a binary choice on an Article 50 bill: are you for or against Brexit? Labour officials suggested that after much huffing and puffing, Mrs May will get her legislation in mid-March, just in time to meet her deadline of March 31 2017 for starting Brexit.

Full article on Financial Times (subscription required)

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