14 September 2017

Financial Times: Merkel’s message to Theresa May: Brexit means Brexit

[...] In the circumstances, it makes perfect sense for Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, and his team to allow the pressure of time to build up before agreeing to move on from discussions about past financial obligations and the rights of EU citizens to talking in detail about the shape of the future relationship. 

Politics pulls in the same direction. Mrs May’s ill-fated election gambit robbed the prime minister of her personal authority and her government of its majority. There is no guarantee that she could actually deliver anything agreed in Brussels. The incentive is to let the clock do its work. How long now before an anxious business community takes irrevocable decisions to shift some shipping operations from Britain to the continent?

Mrs May thinks she has an answer. The logjam can be broken by direct talks with other governments. More specifically, once the German elections are over on September 24 a re-elected Angela Merkel can be prevailed upon to give a helpful nudge to Mr Barnier to pick up speed.

We have been here before. Misreading Bonn and later Berlin has been one of the more reliable threads of 44 years of British EU membership. Germany, the thinking in London goes, is an outward-looking, Atlanticist nation with, by continental standards, a liberal economic bent not far removed from that of Britain. The UK is one of German industry’s richest markets. These are two nations on the same side.

Mrs May’s predecessor and author of the present debacle David Cameron made precisely this calculation when he sought before the Brexit referendum to win over Ms Merkel to British demands for EU reform. The chancellor held firm in defence of the integrity of the existing framework of rules. Now Mrs May seems intent on repeating the mistake by expecting Ms Merkel to bend the EU’s rules to accommodate Britain’s departure.

But Germany has its own politics and interests. The opinion polls may be unanimous in predicting a fourth term for the chancellor, but they are far less clear about how she will assemble a governing coalition. For the next couple of months securing her own position will come far ahead of bailing on the British.

As for European policy, the first priority for Berlin is to assure the stability of the 27. The terms of another bailout for Greece, deepening integration in the eurozone and measures to strengthen the borders of Schengen all rank above Brexit on Germany’s European agenda.

To borrow an unfortunate phrase, Ms Merkel’s message to Mrs May is that Brexit means Brexit: Britain cannot leave the EU and expect to escape the consequences.

For Germany, the integrity of the union depends on preserving the rules. Those who step outside cannot keep the benefits. Ms Merkel does want a good relationship with the UK. But Germany has the Europe it wants. It is not about to give it up for Mrs May.

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