28 September 2018

Joschka Fischer: Brexit and the European Order

Since British voters opted to take their country out of the EU, the Brexit debate has focused largely on the economic consequences of that fateful decision. But Brexit's political implications for Europe's role in the world are far more important, writes the former German Vice Chancellor.

[...] In terms of its day-to-day affairs, the EU is largely perceived as a common market and customs union. But at its core, it is a political project based on a specific idea about the European system of states. This idea – not the economics of the matter – is what Brexit is really about. And it is why the UK’s decision to leave the EU – with or without an exit agreement – will have a profound impact on the twenty-first-century European order.

The slim majority of Britons who voted for “Leave” in the 2016 referendum weren’t concerned with economic wealth, but with reclaiming full political sovereignty. They define sovereignty not in terms of objective facts about Britain’s present or future, but in terms of Britain’s past as a global power during the nineteenth century. Never mind that the UK is now a medium-size European power with little to no chance of ever becoming a global player again – be it inside or outside the EU.

If the rest of the continent were to follow the British example and opt for the nineteenth over the twenty-first century, the EU would disintegrate. Each country would be forced back into a cumbersome system of sovereign states struggling for supremacy and constantly checking one another’s ambitions.

Under such conditions, European countries would lack any real power, and thus would be retired from the world stage for good. Europe, torn between Transatlanticism and Eurasianism, would become easy prey for the non-European major powers of the twenty-first century. In a worst-case scenario, Europe might even become an arena for the larger powers’ fights. Europeans would no longer determine their own future; their fate would be decided elsewhere. [...]

Over the course of the UK’s negotiations with the EU, an old problem has re-emerged: the Irish question. Once the Republic of Ireland and the UK both belonged to the EU, the impetus for Irish reunification disappeared, and the decades-long civil war between Catholics and Protestants in Northern Ireland could be put to rest. The practical realities of EU integration meant that it no longer mattered which country Northern Ireland belonged to. But with Brexit throwing history into reverse, the specters of the past are threatening to return.1

Europeans should watch the Irish issue closely, because there is even more potential for a return of such conflicts on the continent. A new world order is emerging, and it will be centered around the Pacific, not the Atlantic. Europe has one – and only one – chance to manage this historic transition. The old European nation-states will be no match for the new competition unless they are united. And even then, achieving European sovereigntywill require a massive and concentrated effort of political will and ingenuity.

Yearning for a glorious past is the last thing that will help Europeans confront the challenge they face. The past, by its very nature, is over. With or without the UK, Europe must see to its future. [...]

Full op-ed on Project Syndicate

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