31 January 2019

Financial Times: The EU cannot rescue Britain from Brexit chaos

Philip Stephens writes that May’s government has shown it is not to be counted on any longer as a trusted partner by its European allies. The brakes to save Britain from the crash-out course set by the Prime Minister can be applied only by the nation’s own politicians.

The mandate the prime minister claims to have secured to rewrite the Irish “backstop” is worthless and incredible. Worthless because all the other options for the Irish border have been exhaustively explored, and discarded, during the Article 50 negotiations. Incredible because the hardliners who backed her this week do not want an agreement. Supporting Mrs May now was a diversion. The real strategy is to run down the clock all the way to a no-deal Brexit. [...]

Whatever the consequences for the nation, Mrs May is set on leaving the EU by March 29. “My duty”, she calls this. The messianic tone has led some senior cabinet members to conclude she would rather let Britain fall out in a disorderly Brexit than have history say she split the Tories. [...]

In the meantime, Berlin, Paris, Brussels and the rest are being asked to abandon the Irish government and to gamble with peace — all in the cause of guaranteeing for Mrs May the votes in parliament of the Democratic Unionist party and preserving Tory unity. The prime minister bridles at the charge that she is careless of peace. But her stance bears no other interpretation. For its part, the DUP was the only big political grouping in Northern Ireland to oppose the Belfast Agreement.

What must be doubly maddening for the EU negotiators is the assumption among so many Tory MPs that the Irish arrangements were designed permanently to lock Britain into a close trading relationship. Nothing could be more removed from the truth. Governments across the EU fear the backstop, were it ever to be implemented, would give Britain an unfair advantage — unique access to the European market without any responsibilities. The EU27 would be as eager as any Brexiter to ensure such a regime was short-lived. [...]

The British government, though, can no longer be counted as a trusted partner. If the latest mix of deception and delusion has shown anything, it is that there really is nothing that its European partners can do to save Britain from the crash-out course set by Mrs May. The brakes can be applied only by the nation’s own politicians.

The House of Commons has voted against a disorderly Brexit. But it is has refused thus far to arm itself with the means to enforce its decision.  [...]

The dynamic could change. This could start with a binding motion calling for a delay to the timetable. The second step could be a series of votes to explore options for a softer Brexit. My hunch is that the faster the clock ticks the more likely it is that Britain will tumble into an unintended election. A second referendum could follow. But Mrs May must first be stopped.

Full article on Financial Times (subscription required)

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