23 April 2021

EPC: Could the Brexit domino effect come back to haunt us?

The British vote to leave the European Union on 23 June 2016 sent a shockwave through the other member states. At the time, the Leave campaign’s success triggered fears of a domino effect that would unravel the EU project. But against all expectations, Brexit has neither fuelled anti-EU sentiments among Europeans nor emboldened political leaders to demand their own country’s exit. On the contrary, the divisive nature of the British debate and the reality of Brexit has had a deterrent effect.

Nevertheless, the Brexit domino effect could still return if Boris Johnson continues to escape any accountability and retells the Brexit story uncontested.

The reverse domino effect

From the continent, Brexit continues to look like an act of self-harm with severe economic and political costs, including the distinct possibility that it might actually pave the way for the break-up of the United Kingdom. While the EU is also weakened by the loss of one of its largest member states, the impact is less severe as it secured an agreement that safeguards its vital interests. Brexit remains an existential challenge for the UK but manageable for the EU.

This is partly thanks to how the EU handled the issue. Faced with a potentially existential threat, the EU displayed an unprecedented level of unity, with member states gathering behind the European Commission’s negotiating strategy. The excruciating British debate highlighted the economic and political costs of being a third country – that EU membership matters –, leaving the remaining members with a sense of vindication. However, the EU should be careful not to become too complacent and continue to pay close attention to the EU–UK relationship, as the feared domino effect may still rear its ugly head .

Shaping the Brexit narrative

The EU clearly has a desire to close this regrettable chapter of European (dis-)integration and relegate the EU–UK relationship to a third-order issue, preferably to be dealt with by the Trade and Cooperation Agreement’s (TCA) technical committees. But recent disputes, be it on COVID-19 vaccine supply chains or the implementation of the Northern Ireland Protocol, have demonstrated that both sides’ political engagement, and not just technical management, will be needed.

The EU’s UK strategy should account for a partner whose approach to EU–UK relations, and therefore to problem-solving, remains above all political and firmly focused on the domestic audience. The current UK government, supported by parts of the British media, will continue to politicise its relationship with the EU and weave the narrative of Brexit as a success story. For the sake of his political survival, Boris Johnson will paint every British success as a Brexit dividend and blame any negative impact on the EU.

Meanwhile, Brexit will drop off the EU27’s agenda. This will make it more difficult for the EU bodies monitoring the EU–UK relationship (e.g. the newly established Service for the EU–UK Agreements, or UKS) to cut through the noise and communicate a unified message in the face of European ‘Brexit fatigue’ and other, more pressing priorities. Consequently, the UK narrative will be largely uncontested....

more at EPC

© European Policy Centre EPC