03 March 2022

FT: Ukraine marks an end to Brexit illusions

Just as few military plans survive first contact with the enemy, so few grand diplomatic visions outlast exposure to reality. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is forcing western nations to rethink core assumptions. In the UK, it means the end of Brexit illusions of a new direction for “Global Britain”.

The crisis hammers home the fact that the UK cannot escape its geography. Lofty dreams of reorienting British thinking with an Indo-Pacific tilt will now be subordinated as focus returns squarely to the overwhelming priority, which means recognising that the UK’s own security is inextricably linked with Europe’s.

There were good things in last year’s Integrated Review of foreign and security policy, not least the emphasis on high tech and cyber warfare. But it was predicated on absence of major conflict and conditions which suited an independent midsized power. It is a mistake to pay undue heed to Johnsonian rhetoric of a reborn maritime power steaming towards fresh alliances in the Indo-Pacific.

But while less than a strategy, Global Britain is more than a slogan. Though rational, the tilt is also driven by the need for a post-Brexit economic and diplomatic narrative. Its defence aspects were largely about building US ties and bolstering a trade strategy but it framed a political discourse keen to identify new horizons.

The review was clear in its commitment to European security through Nato and in identifying Russia as the greatest threat. But there was a patent effort to say as little as possible about the EU and Tories are overly keen to find reasons to talk it down.

So a Brexit mindset drove diplomatic thinking while banking on the continued weakness of EU security policy (and German conflicts of interest) to shore up the UK’s place in Nato. There was no need for this approach. While the UK has always championed Nato over the EU, Brexit did not require more distance from the EU on security. But the UK weakened ties, insisting on ad hoc EU meetings rather than formal structures which reinforce relationships. Meanwhile, efforts to unpick the Northern Ireland Protocol have alienated friends (including the US) and promoted the view of the UK as an unreliable ally....

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