30 August 2022

UK and EU: Should Macron be the UK's friend?

The current situation is indeed worrying. Relations between France and the UK have been stagnant since 2016. There have only been a few ministerial visits and other high-level contacts. The annual Franco-British bilateral summit has not met since January 2018 – a gap of more than four years.

Last week, Liz Truss said the ‘jury was still out’ when asked if French President Emmanuel Macron was a ‘friend or foe’ of the UK. Her comments show how the Franco-British relationship can sometimes become embroiled in the UK domestic political debate. Truss added that she would judge Macron on ‘deeds not words’. As the Foreign Secretary’s comments suggest, France and the UK have not been on the best of terms recently. But what ‘deeds’ might change this?  

Next week, the new British Prime Minister will arrive in Number 10. With a new French government elected in France in the Spring, there is a window of opportunity to revive the Franco-British relationship, with the two countries facing tremendous challenges at home and abroad.  

The current situation is indeed worrying. Relations between France and the UK have been stagnant since 2016. There have only been a few ministerial visits and other high-level contacts. The annual Franco-British bilateral summit has not met since January 2018 – a gap of more than four years. Meanwhile, the number of points of tension have risen in the wake of Brexit – fisheries, illegal Channel crossings, the implementation of the Northern Ireland Protocol, AUKUS. 

This had a negative impact on bilateral cooperation, including on defence – one of the key pillars of Franco-British relations. The defence relationship between the two countries is built on strong foundations with the Lancaster House Treaty signed in 2010, but the number of concrete projects has declined. The effective end of the future combat aircraft project (FCAS) as a Franco-British endeavour is one example. France and Germany decided to launch their own FCAS cooperation in 2017. AUKUS has put further strain on both the political and defence relationships. 

Both sides will argue that there are good reasons for this state of affairs – the context of Brexit, alongside interpersonal factors and a general lack of trust. While the UK chose to leave the EU, France invested even more in EU integration, particularly through a closer relationship with Germany, including on defence. Emmanuel Macron’s re-election in April confirmed this direction of travel. 

The international context has evolved since 2016. The security environment of both countries is deteriorating: the war in Ukraine, the end of the French operation in Sahel, the China challenge becoming more and more pressing. There are uncertainties about the resilience of our democracies across the West. The US ally – a key partner for both countries – might not be as reliable in the future given the current uncertainties in Washington. 

In light of these developments, there is a need to revitalise the Franco-British relationship. There is common ground between the two countries despite the current situation. The defence and security relationship is deep. France and the UK are ‘geostrategic twins’: similar populations and economic weight, imperial histories, comparable defence capabilities and they are both nuclear-weapon states. 

UK and EU

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