On 31 January 2024 it will be four years since Brexit started to become real.  

Although people (as opposed to UK businesses) have experienced some changes as a result of the new relationship – for example being forced into longer passport queues – decisions by the UK and the EU mean the dial could be turned up further through election year.  

Extra costs are not the type of Brexit bonus the government had in mind

The UK's departure from the EU meant GB exporters were immediately subject to the full panoply of controls when they crossed into the EU. However, the UK government repeatedly delayed imposing controls in the other direction – until now. This year it finally appears that the UK is to start the process of putting in place controls: new paperwork requirements are being introduced from 31 January, culminating in full controls in operation in October.

The last delay was attributed to the risk that introducing controls in the autumn would add to inflation – potentially getting in the way of achieving the prime minister’s target of halving inflation by the end of the year.  

Now the government now appears to have decided to go ahead, which may mean that inflation in an election year is – slightly – higher than it otherwise might have been. That is probably not a Brexit bonus that the government was keen to celebrate this year.  

The government could face awkward supply shortage headlines

But – more strikingly – these checks may also lead to supply disruption and shortages if some EU suppliers decide it is not worth making the necessary adjustments – and risking delays – to bring goods over the Channel. While the run-up to Christmas is a particularly bad time to introduce new border controls, the period of January to March is one when the UK is most dependent on imported produce. Last year then environment secretary Therese Coffey was widely ridiculed for suggesting people should eat turnips when there were shortages of fruit and vegetables – like tomatoes – last year.  

This year there are warnings that the new controls could lead to shortages of goods as varied as pork (where there is a complicated pig carcass sharing regime across Europe – we get the chops, Europeans get ears and trotters), Dutch tulips and, if seedlings wither in border control posts, strawberries, which could mean a shortage at Wimbledon. The problem is both capacity at the border – with potential for delays causing perishable goods to perish – but also a Europe-wide lack of vets to sign off the necessary certificates.    

Any shortage – whether strike, weather or border related – risks being laid at the door of Brexit. It will prove a convenient scapegoat – and a highly televisual one. And the government will be on the back foot to explain away these Brexit non-benefits.

Brexit supporters may blame the prime minister for self-inflicted woes