02 July 2024

UKandEU's Curtice: What do Labour voters want Starmer to do about Brexit?

If the polls of voting intention in the general election are at all correct, then by the end of this week Sir Keir Starmer will be the new tenant of 10 Downing St. If so, then it is not expected that the new government will seek to overturn Brexit. In line with the stance adopted by the party ever since Sir Keir became Labour’s leader four years ago, the party has repeatedly said during the campaign that while it hopes to improve the Brexit deal that was negotiated by Boris Johnson, a Labour government would not join the EU single market or customs union, let alone contemplate applying to rejoin the EU.

But how far does Labour’s stance on Brexit reflect the views of those who intend to vote for the party on Thursday? The latest Redfield & Wilton poll for The UK in a Changing Europe, conducted during the middle of the election campaign, provides us with a timely opportunity to examine the attitudes, hopes and fears on Brexit that Labour voters will be bringing with them when they make the journey to their local polling station.

Not least of the reasons for Labour’s acceptance of Brexit was a belief that the party needed to reconnect with the many former Labour voters who voted for Brexit in 2016 and then backed Boris Johnson in 2019. However, attitudes towards Brexit have changed since 2019, and over the last two years in particular only one poll has reported that more would vote to stay out of the EU than would back leaving in any referendum held now. This is reflected in Redfield & Wilton’s latest poll which, after those who said don’t know are left aside, estimates that 61% would vote to rejoin while 39% would back staying out. This represents a two-point swing towards rejoining since the company’s previous reading in April and, indeed, is the highest level of support for rejoin that the company has registered since August of last year.

Labour voters are, however, markedly more likely than voters in general to say they would vote to rejoin. As many as 78% say they would vote to rejoin, almost exactly matching the equivalent figures of 77% for the Liberal Democrats (whose party’s official stance on Brexit in the short term at least is not that different from Labour’s) and 73% for the Greens.  In contrast, only 44% of Conservative supporters and just 25% of those intending to vote Reform express the same view. Although there may not be much of a divide between the parties in terms of their policy on Brexit, the coalition of voters each has assembled at this election hold very different views on the subject.

Of course, we might feel that while Labour’s voters would have preferred the UK to remain part of the EU, they do not necessarily want to see the issue reopened. However, it is far from clear that this is the case. Over half (55%) say that the issue of Britain’s membership of the EU has ‘not been settled and should be reopened’, while only one in three (33%) say that the issue is ‘settled and should not be reopened’. Meanwhile, as many as 69% believe that there ‘definitely’ or ‘probably’ should be another referendum on Brexit within the next five years, while less than one four (23%) are opposed. Indeed, no less than 84% of Labour rejoiners would like another referendum...

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