12 November 2024

UKandEU: How people voted in the Brexit referendum still shapes their view of the world

John Denham, Conor Gaughan, and Tim Oliver unpack polling for the British Academy exploring how English voters view the world and the country’s place within it. They highlight that whether someone voted Leave or Remain is still a good predictor of their wider view of the world.

The 2016 EU referendum reflected voters’ different views of the UK’s relationship with Europe. While some seem to have changed their minds about that binary choice – over half the public now think ‘leaving the EU was a mistake’ and only a third think it was the right decision – how people in England voted in 2016 persists as an indicator of their views of the wider world.

Analysis of polling carried out in 2022 and 2023 shows that 2016 Leave and Remain voters in England often hold different views of UK foreign policy and international relations. The divide goes well beyond views of the EU, and is apparent in opinion on climate change, defence and security, development assistance, human rights, trade, national economic policy, and the importance of the UK’s relationships with other parts of the world.

Our data correlates attitudes on international matters with how people in England voted in 2016. It does not measure their current views on EU membership or whether they ever identified as ‘Leavers’ or ‘Remainers’ who formed judgements of each other according to their Brexit vote. The chart below shows the responses of 2016 Leave and Remain voters to a range of foreign policy propositions, ranked by the divergence between them.

Unsurprisingly, some of the widest divergence is found on EU related issues. The widest polarisation is over whether Brexit restored UK sovereignty and whether the UK best succeeds as a sovereign trading nation. English voters are divided on Leave-Remain lines over whether the EU is a force for good in the world, a reliable ally, or has a similar culture to England. This leaves them divided over whether UK foreign policy should align with that of the EU.

2016 Leave voters do not believe the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) should restrict a UK government from acting in the national interest, while Remainers are more comfortable with the ECHR acting as a constraint.

 

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